Shale gas blasts open world energy market

American firms have cracked the technology to tap vast new reserves
Danny Fortson

A stretch of coastline on the Texas-Louisiana border provides a startling glimpse of Europe’s energy future. There, where Lake Sabine empties into the Gulf of Mexico, a giant port was completed last year. Built at a cost of $1.5 billion (£900m), it was meant to be a vital new part of America’s energy infrastructure.
Giant tankers from places such as Qatar and Sakhalin island in Russia’s far east were meant to dock there to inject their cargoes of liquefied natural gas (LNG) straight into the national pipeline network.
The Sabine Pass terminal was meant to take about one ship a day but since it opened for business 18 months ago only 10 ships have come in.
“This big shiny new terminal was one of the ones built as the answer to declining US gas production and increasing demand,” said Steve Johnson president of Waterborne Energy, a Texas energy consultancy. “Now it’s in mothballs.”
It is much the same story at America’s eight other LNG import terminals. They are running at only 10% of capacity.
“We have had so much new production come on stream that all of a sudden the role of these terminals has changed dramatically,” said Johnson. “They are getting the world’s leftovers.”
The reason is shale gas — a new and abundant source of natural gas, trapped in rock formations. Oil companies have known about it for decades but always dismissed it because it was too expensive and difficult to extract. In the past few years new technologies that pump water underground to fracture the rock and free the gas have been perfected. The breakthrough has opened a new frontier for the energy industry and turned long-held assumptions about the world’s dwindling supplies on their head.
Suddenly, America is awash with gas. Tony Hayward, chief executive of BP, said it had created a “a revolution in the gas fields of North America”. In a report this summer, the US potential gas committee increased its estimates of American reserves by a third. The Department of Energy now predicts that shale gas could meet half America’s demand within two decades and turn the country into a net exporter.
The gas price has reacted accordingly, crashing by 60% in the past year, severing the long-standing link with the oil price.
The revolution in America has set off activity elsewhere. In August Conoco Phillips signed a deal to explore 1m acres in Poland. Shell has bought licences in Sweden, and Exxon Mobil has large holdings in Germany and Poland. France recently launched a licensing round. Other projects are under way in Argentina, Australia, China and India.
Paul Wheeler, managing director at the Jefferies International investment bank, said: “There is a landgrab going on in Europe. It will change the game if the big oil companies crack the geological code of unconventional gas in Europe. The resulting gas production would make Europe more self sufficient and put the brakes on Russian gas becoming a more potent instrument of political influence.”
Gazprom, the Russian provider of a quarter of Europe’s gas, has been dismissive of shale gas. It has a lot to lose if Europe finds it is sitting on vast reserves. Yet it emerged last month that the company is considering buying an American producer of shale gas, partly to see if it can apply the technology at home.
In Europe it is still early days. Nikos Tsafos of PFC Energy, a consultancy, said: “Unconventional gas has transformed the American market. Europe is at a much earlier stage. There is no doubt there is a big resource base there and everyone is excited about it. But we are not yet seeing the corresponding activity on the ground to make it happen.”
It is not a question of simply transplanting the expertise built up in America to Europe. For one, the geology of mountainous central and eastern Europe is far different to the plains in Texas and Pennsylvania and the Rocky Mountains, where there have been big gas finds.
Also, it took many years and a huge number of companies to finally crack the production problems. “There were 30 or 40 players in America who made some extraordinary technological gains. It’s not clear whether the environment is right for that to occur in Europe,” said Tsafos. “These projects require huge amounts of infrastructure: pipelines, rigs, service companies. It will take some time to build that up.”
Population density is also a factor. Drilling into shale is a large, invasive operation and Europe does not have as much wide open space as North America.
The shale is cracked by rigs that drill down thousands of feet. They are able to turn 90 degrees and continue horizontally to follow gas-rich seams. Once a hole is drilled, explosive charges are inserted and detonated to create a series of openings in pipes laid to keep the well open. A mixture of water and sand is then shot down at high pressure. When it spurts through the openings in the pipes, it shatters the surrounding rock and the gas is released.
The process uses vast quantities of water and American regulators are only now coming to grips with the environmental impact.
The prize, though, is huge. Burning gas produces far lower carbon emissions than oil or coal. For governments struggling to hit pollution targets, that is important. So is security of supply. Countries are scrambling to get new supplies. Companies in Britain have spent billions on new LNG terminals on the Isle of Grain in Kent and at Milford Haven in Wales to make up for the North Sea’s decline. Croatia and Poland are also working on plans to build new port capacity. Construction on the £7 billion Nabucco pipeline from Turkey to Austria — meant to reduce Europe’s dependence on Russia — is set to begin next year.
Opinion remains divided over whether the American experience can be repeated. Researchers at Texas A&M University estimate world reserves could increase ninefold. Nick Grealy, an energy consultant who runs the No Hot Air website, said shale gas was a “millionaire ticket that can be shared by everybody”.
Critics say the prospects are far less promising. They argue that shale reserves rapidly peter out once they are accessed and that the variable nature of rock formations makes it difficult to always use the same technology, making it expensive and unpredictable.
Yet for some the debate is over. Charif Souki, the man behind the Sabine Pass terminal, has seen at first hand what shale gas means. He bet the future of the company he leads, Cheniere Energy, on America’s expected need to import gas by ship. Once a stock-market darling, the company has plunged deep into losses and seen 95% of its market value disappear.
At a conference in Europe last month, he offered a warning. He said: “Non-conventional reserves do exist and will be produced, it’s just a question of price.” He couldn’t believe the scepticism about shale gas expressed by energy executives in Europe. “Those are the same speeches I heard in the US,” he said.

Forty days to get a climate deal

The Copenhagen summit opens in December. Many see it as the last chance to limit the consequences of global warming – but failure is a real prospect. Here, we examine the complex trade-offs that will have to take place for the summit to succeed
Robin McKie, Suzanne Goldenberg and Jonathan Watts
The Observer, Sunday 1 November 2009

Global warming has brought hard times to Hebei, the dry northern province of China that envelops Beijing. Rising temperatures and unpredictable rain patterns have forced farmers and nomads to flee the land and move to cities. Lakes are drying, crops are withering, deserts are spreading and food production is declining: all reminders to the Chinese government that it cannot afford to ignore the danger of climate change.
Yet there is another side to life in this overheating region. At the former agricultural town of Baoding, a hub of low-carbon technology has been created. Hundreds of workers are constructing giant towers and blades for wind turbines. Tianwei, the company that runs the facility, has increased output from 20 units last year to 150 this year. Next year, they aim to build 500.
In the deserts and grasslands of northern Hebei, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, a new wind turbine is erected almost every hour. Thanks to these great machines, Baoding alone will reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 35% by 2020. “Human society is moving from industrial civilisation to eco-civilisation,” says its young mayor, Yu Qun.
It is a remarkable vision. On one hand devastating weather is triggering key changes to the landscape; on the other, glittering low-carbon technology is being set up to tackle the problem. The question – not just for China but for the world – is simple: can this technological fix of wind turbines, solar plants and other renewable energy generators be assembled quickly enough to prevent rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide from destroying the farmlands of Hebei, and all those other fertile regions of the globe, and so prevent widespread loss of life by the middle of the century? In short, does humanity have the will – and the time – to halt global warming?
Answers to these questions are now becoming increasingly urgent as politicians enter the final stages of preparations for the Copenhagen climate summit that starts on 7 December. World leaders will then have the chance to hammer out a deal to halt ice caps melting and sea levels from rising catastrophically. Many believe this will be their last chance to save the world.
Only “a clear, politically binding treaty” that puts limits on every nation’s carbon output and pledges specific sums of money – to be spent on renewable technology across the globe – will be acceptable as a summit outcome, Britain’s chief climate negotiator, Ed Miliband, told the Observer last week. “We have put our cards on the table,” said Miliband, the secretary of state for energy and climate change. “We need other nations to do the same.”
It is an uncompromising stance. Yet the creation of a binding Copenhagen deal now looks increasingly unlikely as the summit looms. Despite the fact that negotiators have had two years to prepare, they now enter the final phase of talks with a real prospect of failure ahead of them.
“It is realistic to say that in Copenhagen we will not be able to conclude a treaty,” Angela Merkel said on Friday at the end of a two-day meeting of EU leaders. The best that can now be hoped for is the establishment of a framework for future negotiations, warned the German chancellor.
This depressing vision flies in the face of Miliband’s hopes for the summit. So who is going to be proved right? Will the Copenhagen talks falter, fail and doom the planet? Or will there be sufficient progress to raise hopes that measures can be introduced to limit global warming to a 2C rise by the end of the century? It should be noted that to achieve the latter, each developed nation will have to agree to the introduction of massive limits to its greenhouse gas emissions: by between 20-30% by 2020 and by around 80% by 2050. Only radical changes in the way we power our factories, homes, cars and planes will bring about this goal.
Yet it is clear that there is a will to act to save the world. Constant reminders about the world’s warming seas, extreme weather events, eroding glaciers and disappearing wild animals have made politicians aware of the dangers of global warming. The construction of those wind turbines across the barren Hebei landscape shows that even the Chinese, once the most difficult of nations to convince about the need for greenhouse gas reductions, have got the message. The same is true of other nations.
The problem is agreeing a common strategy. How much aid should rich countries pay developing nations to combat climate change? What assurances should the latter give about the way they spend this money? How can the world halt the clearance of forests which play such a crucial role in absorbing carbon dioxide? The developed world wants pledges, the developing nations want cash. Each expects the other to act first. The result has been stalemate.
Nor is there much doubt about the principal cause of this failure to act. It is the fact that the United States has not passed legislation that would limit its own colossal emissions of greenhouse gases. Per capita, the US is one of the greatest emitters of carbon dioxide. The average American is responsible for pumping out almost 25 tonnes of the stuff every year. By contrast, a European produces about 10 tonnes, an Indian 2 tonnes and a Chinese person around 6 tonnes. (China, overall, is the biggest national emitter because its population is so vast.)
The world needs the US to set an example. However, despite pledges by the Obama administration, it has so far not managed to do so. A bill is being discussed by the Senate but will certainly not be passed in time for Copenhagen thanks mainly to fierce opposition from conservative Democrat politicians as well as Republicans. Polls also indicate that ordinary Americans are becoming less engaged with climate change issues while environmentalists warn that the Senate bill is likely to be weakened during committee negotiations.
It is a depressing scenario. If America does not set a lead, the world is unlikely to act effectively. On the other hand, all is not gloom. In the past week or two, signs of a shift in America’s attitude have become unmistakable. The prominent Republican Senator Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina, has written a column for the New York Times in support of the climate change bill, for example.
Similarly, in Senate hearings, critics of the bill have stopped debating the scientific evidence for global warming and shifted to a debate about the economic costs of cutting greenhouse gas emissions. “Eleven academies in industrialised countries say climate change is real; humans have caused most of the recent warming,” said Lamar Alexander, a Republican senator from Tennessee. “If fire chiefs of the same reputation told me my house was about to burn down, I’d buy some fire insurance. But I’d buy insurance that worked. I wouldn’t buy insurance that’s so expensive I couldn’t pay my mortgage or my hospital bill.”
This shift is one of several tangible signs that Barack Obama has helped turn around American thinking on climate change. Last week the White House renewed these concerns when Obama toured a solar facility in Florida and announced some $3.4bn in grants for the development of America’s “smart grid”.
At the same time, the vice-president, Joe Biden, visited a factory making plug-in cars in Delaware while John Kerry, the former presidential candidate, has been lobbying hard for a change in climate law. For months, he has been hosting a Tuesday breakfast club where he tries to persuade the doubters to support a bill.
Phil Leventis, a state senator from South Carolina who came to Washington last week to campaign for a climate change bill, believes change is taking place. “I’m thinking a light bulb has gone on in the minds of the general public,” he said, adding that the spate of high-profile conversions – especially from Republicans – could produce the votes senators need to pass the bill. “Lindsey Graham has given them cover.”
Change is coming though it is almost certainly too little and too late to allow America to play a strong leadership role at Copenhagen. Instead the European Union, with Britain in the vanguard, will take the driving seat. At its summit last week, the EU decided to call for the establishment of a £90bn a year fund to help the world’s poorest nations develop new energy technologies. It has also promised to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 20% from 1990 levels by 2020 and to raise this level to 30% if a global deal is agreed at Copenhagen.
“Europe has put its cards on the table,” says Miliband. “Now we want others to do the same. That is China, Russia, India and the US. Everyone needs to come forward with specific proposals. They need to come with ambitious reductions. An agreement without numbers would not be a satisfactory agreement.”
The problem is getting the world to agree on those numbers. While Europe may have trumpeted its proposal to up its carbon cuts to 30% provided a global deal is agreed, this is still not enough for developing nations. Virtually all the excess carbon now in the atmosphere has been put there by developed nations, they point out. If the world is overheating it is the west that it is to blame. Hence the demand by the Group of 77 (G77), which represents China, India and the developing nations, that the developed world must cut its emissions by at least 40% by 2020 – a huge decrease in a very short time.
To date, only Norway has agreed to try to meet this challenge. Few other developed nations – and certainly not the US – are likely to take this step. The arithmetic of climate change is going to prove to be a tricky business.
Some signals are more encouraging, however. At the UN climate summit last month, President Hu Jintao of China said he was prepared to set his country’s first carbon targets. This will not involve an overall cut, but an “intensity” reduction relative to the growth of the economy, he added.
He was, however, short on specifics and merely pledged that it would be a “notable margin” by 2020. Most analysts suggest that in the absence of rich nations setting ambitious targets for their emissions, China is likely to set a goal of around 20%. This is “not quite enough,” as one observed. China says it will also establish national tree planting campaigns and even provide a small amount of support for renewable energy projects for poorer nations. It will also raise its renewable energy target and set a date to start reducing overall emissions.
This is promising, admitted Miliband, but still not enough. He is to travel to Barcelona this weekend to take part in the final interim negotiating meeting before Copenhagen and is to hold special talks with his Chinese counterpart.
“I will be asking the Chinese minister how he plans to build on President Hu’s speech and say exactly what they intend to do,” he said.
And then there is India. It emits just 5% of the world’s carbon compared to China’s 23%, but is still preparing to unveil a carbon scheme and a boost in investment for renewable energy. This point is seized on by Rajendra Pachauri, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, who told the Observer that China and India could make an important contribution by putting their domestic policies into a global plan. “As far as large developing countries are concerned, I hope they come with their national action plans and put them on the table and say this is what we are planning to do. You cannot expect developing nations to reduce emissions. But you can ask them to deviate from business as usual.”
Such signs suggest all is not lost and that a global climate deal can be hammered out. The only issue is one of timing for it is certainly not clear it will be possible to resolve, in the next few weeks, the issues of setting up methods for financing the developing world to help it survive global warming, of setting ways to ensure these funds go on renewable energy technology and are not diverted illegally, of fixing specific limits for carbon reductions for every country, and for establishing schemes that would halt the continuing deforestation of the planet.
Yes, it looks gloomy, but there is still hope, argues Miliband. “The most important commodity that we have is momentum,” he said. “Things will go down to the last day at Copenhagen, I know. However, if we have to spend Christmas there, then we will.”
Emission sources
According to the World Resources Institute, carbon dioxide makes up 77% of all greenhouse gas emissions, with methane (14%) and nitrous oxide (8%) making up the bulk of the remainder. The largest annual emitters of greenhouse gases are as follows:
Electricity and Heat
Worldwide electricity production and heat generation are the cause of 24.6% of total global emissions, with 9.9% of emissions from residential buildings and 5.4% from commercial property. This results in an estimated 10,269 million metric tons (MtCO2) released into the atmosphere each year.
Industry
Industrial processes add up to 21% of global emissions, with the chemical industry accounting for 4.8%, followed by cement production at 3.8%, and iron and steel at 3.2%. An estimated total of 8,856 MtCO2 are released by industry each year. (chemicals production at 2,013 MtCO2, cement 1,588 MtCO2, iron and steel 1,319 MtCO2 and aluminium only 324 MtCO2.)
Deforestation
Land use change and forestry (deforestation, harvesting and land management) is contributing 18.3% of greenhouse gas emissions, resulting in 7,619 MtCO2 of emissions annually.
Transportation
13.5% of emissions. Of this, 9.9% comes from traffic, 1.6% from aviation and 2.3% from rail, ship and other transport. Adding an estimated 5,743 MtCO2 to the atmosphere.
Agriculture
Land cultivation and animal husbandry also accounts for 13.5% of emissions, including 5.1% from livestock and manure, meaning the agriculture sector, including soils management and methane emissions from livestock, creates an estimated 6,205 MtCO2.
Waste
Landfill, wastewater management and human sewage accounts for 3.6% of emissions, including 3% from landfill and 1.6% from waste water and other sources, releasing 1,484 MtCO2.
Source: CAIT

Address by Higher Education and Training Minister Dr. Blade Nzimande atthe ABASA Subvention

Address by Higher Education and Training Minister Dr Blade Nzimande at the Association for the Advancement of Black Accountants of Southern Africa (ABASA) cocktail

29 October 2009

It is a great honour for me to be part of this special occasion which honours the success of ABASA’s Nkuhlu Subvention Fund and the accreditation of the University of Fort Hare by the South African Institute of Chartered Accountants (SAICA).

At the outset let me commend ABASA on the exceptional work it has been doing since its establishment 24 years ago to promote the professional interests of black people engaged in the accounting profession and to increase in the number of black chartered accountants in the country.

The transformation of the financial sector is a formidable challenge and essential to the broad efforts to transform the economy and our society. Latest statistics from SAICA reveal that we still have some distance to travel before we see black and previously disadvantaged people having meaningful representation in the accounting profession. These statistics reflect that black Africans make up only 4,8% of the total number of chartered accountants in the country, with women making up less than two percent.

Time and experience has shown that transformation is not a natural evolutionary process and requires a concerted effort and dedicated programmes to correct racial and gender imbalances. ABASA’s President’s Club, made up of past presidents and other senior members, stepped up to this challenge in 2005 by initiating the Nkhuhlu Subvention Fund (NSF) as a strategic intervention to increase in the number of black Chartered Accountants (CAs) and offer young black South Africans increased access in the field of commerce. It aimed to do this by assisting previously black universities, Fort Hare and Limpopo, to gain SAICA accreditation for their accounting programmes.

The lack of accreditation at these historically disadvantaged institutions limited access and advancement of black people in the accountancy profession. It resulted in their BComm graduates not being able to become Chartered Accountants and their qualifications not being recognised by prospective employers.

SAICA accreditation improves the employability of black BComm graduates from these universities, increases the number of CAs coming from disadvantaged communities, and enhances the marketability of the degrees even for those graduates who do not wish to follow the CA route.

The Nkhuhlu Subvention Fund project also aims to aid transformation by raising funds to enable qualified black CAs to go into academia. Salaries of lecturers are generally not competitive enough to measure up to salaries that CAs would ordinarily get offered outside academia. The funds raised are used to supplement the lecturers’ salaries to bring them in line with what is on offer in the marketplace. This increases the number of black people that serve as academics, thereby transforming institutions of higher learning and providing students with much-needed role models.

Tonight we celebrate a significant achievement in our transformation journey with t he University of Fort Hare receiving accreditation from SAICA. Fort Hare’s results for the final qualifying exams have been commendable, achieving a 64% pass rate in 2009 for auditing specialisation. This was above the national average of 60%.

ABASA’s strategic relationships with sponsors including the Umsobomvu Youth Fund, the Nedbank Eyethu Trust, Nedbank Chairman’s Fund, the Industrial Development Corporation, Auditor General and the national Department of Labour has led to an innovative approach to ensuring that more black students have a real chance at succeeding in a career that would otherwise have been beyond their reach. This project is evidence of how much can be achieved through smart partnerships to further the development goals of our country.

We hope that ABASA’s continued intervention at the University of Limpopo will result in similar success in the institution’s quest to gain SAICA accreditation. The Department of Higher Education and Training is committed to work with you and SAICA to emulate the success of the project at other universities which can benefit from this type of intervention. To this end, we are pleased to learn that ABASA has started discussions with the University of Zululand with a view to extending the programme at this institution.

Ladies and gentlemen, ABASA’s intervention is one of a range of initiatives by professional organisations to invest in the development of human and institutional capacity, so as to increase our scarce and critical skills pool. This includes SAICA’s own Thuthuka scheme to aid training in accounting. The challenge however remains to expose young people to a variety of career opportunities so that they could make informed decisions about the career paths they choose. Moreover, the labour market should work in sync with us so that we are made aware of where we are lacking in terms of skills shortages; the quality of our graduates and in meeting the imperatives of transformation of our society.

Funding for poor students to gain access to quality higher education remains a critical challenge for my department. We are eagerly awaiting a report from the Ministerial Committee which we set up to review the efficacy of the National Student Financial Aid Scheme. This report, due in December, will help give effect to Government’s commitment to progressively introduce free education for the poor up to undergraduate level and will also be essential to the broad redress of racial imbalances in the economy.

It is commendable that ABASA chose universities in rural areas to run this project as young people in these areas and disadvantaged backgrounds face many obstacles aside from funding in pursuing specialised careers. It is apparent that part of the reason for low success rates for such students enrolling at higher education institutions is that they are at times academically and psychologically ill-prepared for the transition to the new environment. With a little support to overcome the culture shock (such as that provided by the Thuthuka programme), I am confident that more black and poor students would be graduating.

It is challenge to all of us how we provide and sustain such support to aid these young people to cope in the daunting new environment of higher education. Community and business support for foundation programmes, such as the Grounding Programme currently being piloted at Fort Hare, are crucial to supporting young people at a critical juncture of their lives.

Ladies and gentlemen, in order for transformation to permeate beyond BEE, business needs to lend a helping hand to open the corporate world to young graduates and novices. There are a number of ways to achieve this, including assisting higher learning institutions to raise capital for Chairs and mentorship programmes that can covert graduates into qualified professionals.

It is also my view, ladies and gentlemen, that the academic profession, particularly in commerce, is still largely untransformed and that too few black people are willing to impart their knowledge and skills to the next generation. Of great concern is the low level of participation and success of black students in particular fields of study like accounting, natural sciences, engineering and in research and postgraduate studies.

This is particularly important as we must urgently develop the next generation of academics and researchers. Therefore initiatives such as ABASA’s Nkuhlu Subvention Fund which promotes the integration of black people into academia need to be applauded and replicated.

Our skills deficit and transformation challenges also require that we think outside the box in terms of how we optimally use our post-school system to produce entrants to the workplace. As you may know, our government and my department in particular is working towards an integrated education and training landscape with skills development as a central pillar of our job creation and human resource development programmes.

University degrees should therefore not be the only criteria to enter the business sector. It is essential that corporate South Africa unbolts its gates to graduates from universities of technology, colleges and other training institutions supported by Sectoral Education and Training Authority (SETA) so that we have a range and mix of knowledge and practical skills entering the workplace. The business sector also needs to be more responsive to our desperate requirement for workplace placements for students in FET colleges and Universities of Technology. Without a functional partnership with business in this regard, our goal to increase enrolment and throughput will not produce the desired results.

Ladies and gentlemen, this initiative by ABASA demonstrates the enormous benefit that can result from strategic intervention and smart partnerships between business and the education and training sector. ABASA’s long term view to promote the professional interests of black people in the accounting profession and to cultivate a future generation of CAs takes black empowerment to a level beyond the superficial.

We encourage you to work with our universities to ensure that the programme is sustained and improves its success rate. The Department of Higher Education and Training looks forward to an active working relationship with you to develop critical and scarce skills and transforming our economy.

We also invite engagement and input on how to employ the resources of business and government strategically to promote racial and gender equity.

Once again, congratulations on the success of your project.

I thank you.

Issued by: Department of Higher Education and Training
29 October 2009
Source: Department of Higher Education and Training

Ahmadinejad calling the shots?

African IDP Convention Fills Void in Humanitarian Crisis

Analysis: African IDP convention fills a void in humanitarian crisis

KAMPALA, 27 October 2009 (IRIN) - The African Union Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa is a comprehensive document that will, if ratified, fill a void in international humanitarian law, say experts.

Whereas the rights of people who flee across national boundaries are protected under the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees and a similar instrument introduced 18 years later by the Organization of African Unity (now the African Union), there has been no international legislation catering specifically for people displaced within their own country (IDPs).

IDPs vastly outnumber refugees in Africa. In just 10 of the 18 countries in east and central Africa, there are more than 10 million IDPs, according to the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), with Sudan (four million), the Democratic Republic of Congo (2.12 million) and Somalia (1.55 million) heading the list.

In the same region, there are refugees in 16 countries, totalling just less than two million, according to OCHA.

This latest instrument, also known as the Kampala Convention because it was signed in the Ugandan capital, “obliges governments to recognize that IDPs have specific vulnerabilities and must be supported”, said Walter Kälin, Representative of the UN Secretary-General on the Human Rights of Internally Displaced Persons.

“It covers all causes of displacement, is forceful in terms of responsibility and goes beyond addressing the roles of states to those of others like the AU and non-state actors.”

Signed by 17 African states at the end of summit on 23 October, the convention defines IDPs broadly, irrespective of who is displacing them.

According to the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), the convention provides a solid framework for enhancing the protection and assistance of IDPs in Africa. The ICRC is the custodian of international humanitarian law.

“The crucial challenge now is the same one facing international humanitarian law in general – ensuring that once the convention is signed and ratified by as many states as possible, it is actually implemented and respected,” ICRC president Jakob Kellenberger said.

“States must now take concrete steps to implement the convention into their own national legislation and regulation systems, and develop plans of action to address issues of displacement.

“The convention goes further than international humanitarian law treaties in some aspects, for example, in the rules it contains on safe and voluntary return, and on access to compensation or other forms of reparation,” Kellenberger said.

Next steps

To become a binding document, the convention has to be ratified by 15 of the AU’s 53 member states.

“No international treaty is perfect, and the AU IDP Convention does have a few weaknesses. Concerns over the lack of effective enforcement mechanisms and insufficient guarantees for equality and non-discrimination have been raised,” the Brookings-Bern Project on Internal Displacement noted in a statement.

“There is some question regarding the extent to which non-state actors and armed groups called upon by the convention to protect IDPs can be bound by its provisions. Nevertheless, the convention, which has benefited from the input of international experts, is considered to be generally consistent with international standards such as the Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement.”

AU officials in Kampala were cautiously upbeat, urging member states to remain engaged. “It is the responsibility of member states that the convention becomes a binding instrument,” Jean Ping, AU Commission President, said. “At this point, it is an achievement, but not an end in itself.”

Zambian president Rupiah Banda also chose his words carefully. “We have given legal force to the task ahead and Zambia is ready to sign,” he said. “Those who are displaced should not be forgotten.”

An observer who requested anonymity said progress would require member states to demonstrate greater political will to implement the convention and address concerns about sovereignty and enforcement.

“It is a question of a progressive [AU] Commission versus [conservative] member states,” he told IRIN in Kampala. “For example, the inclusion of armed groups in the draft was interpreted by some member states as lending legitimacy to such groups.”

The convention emphasizes the sovereignty of member states but spells out the obligations and responsibilities of armed groups. Among others, it prohibits armed groups from carrying our arbitrary displacement, recruiting children and impeding humanitarian assistance.

“Overall, though, the convention has a good chance of getting the necessary signatures rather quickly,” the observer added. “In April, SADC’s [Southern African Development Community] 11 members committed to speedy signature.”

Political will

Civil society leaders, attending a parallel event, insisted political will and demonstrated commitment were key to progress. The fact that only five top officials came to Kampala, they said, called for an urgent strategy to bring on board more states.

Present were Banda, Ugandan President and host, Yoweri Museveni, Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe, Somalia’s Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed and Mohamed Abdelaziz of the AU-recognized Saharawi, along with high-level UN, INGO and AU delegations.

“It is one thing to have a good convention and another to implement it,” Dismas Nkunda of the New York-based International Refugee Rights Initiative told IRIN.

In 2007, the AU adopted the African Charter on democracy, elections and governanc e, but it has so far been ratified by only two member states.

”It .is one thing to have a good convention and another to implement it”. The basic question of impunity also needed to be addressed. Until African countries learn to respect the law, participants said, the continent would “remain at rock bottom” in its attempts to address the problems of the displaced.

AU officials seemed conscious of these sentiments. “We have come a long way, but a plan of action is now envisaged,” Jolly Joiner, AU commissioner for political affairs, told IRIN. “Once member states are on board, we will take this convention forward.”

Antonio Guterres, head of the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) and representative of the UN Secretary-General at the summit, said solving the question of displacement in Africa required political solutions.

“There is no humanitarian solution to conflict,” he explained. “The solution is always political.”

Report can be found online at:
http://www.irinnews.org/Report.aspx?ReportId=86762

This report does not necessarily reflect the views of the Pan-African News Wire

Climate change ‘will put endangered monkeys at further risk’

Several endangered species of monkey are likely to be pushed further towards extinction by the effects of climate change, research has suggested.

At least four primates from South America that appear on the international Red List of endangered species are adversely affected by climate phenomena that are predicted to worsen as the world warms, scientists have found.

The muriqui (right), the Colombian red howler monkey, the woolly monkey and Geoffroy’s spider monkey, have all declined in population either during or soon after recent El Niño events, according to a study from a team at Pennsylvania State University.

Many scientists expect El Niño events, in which abnormally warm ocean temperatures in the southern hemisphere affect the climate, to become stronger or more frequent over the next century.

This could create fresh pressures on species that are already under threat. The muriqi and Geoffroy’s spider monkey (left) are officially endangered, while the woolly monkey has vulnerable status and the Colombian red howler is classified as declining but of least concern.

Ruscena Wiederholt and Eric Post, of Pennsylvania State University, who conducted the study, said that it highlighted the need for more research into how rising temperatures might affect the ateline primate family, to which all four species belong, and other endangered primates.

They said that their findings were particularly concerning because El Niño was shown to have a negative impact on all four species, even though they were native to different parts of South America. (Right: red howler monkey)

“Our results indicate that global climate change and increased El Niño events could pose a serious threat to ateline primates,” they wrote in the journal Biology Letters.

“Given that the status of many primate species is already precarious, in the face of continued global change, further studies to quantify the effects of climate and environmental variability on primate species are needed.”

Dr Post said: “El Niño events are expected to increase in frequency with global warming. This study suggests that the consequences of such intensification of the El Niño Southern Oscillation could be devastating for several species of New World monkeys.”

In the study, the scientists examined abundance trends collected by other research groups for four populations of ateline primates: muriquis from Minas Gerais in Brazil, Colombian red howlers from Guarico State in Venezuela, woolly monkeys from Meta in Colombia (left) and Geoffroy’s spider monkeys from Barro Colorado Island in Colombia.

All four species live in social groups and spend most of their time in the trees of tropical forests. Spider and woolly monkeys mainly eat fruit, howlers predominantly eat leaves, while muriquis eat both.

The researchers then investigated how monkey numbers in each population varied from year to year, and compared these with El Niño events. They also used detailed ecological data from Barro Colorado Island, the spider monkeys’ habitat (monkey at right), to track how fruit and leaf abundance varied with the climate.

The results showed that all four monkey species were affected by the El Niño climate cycle. The leaf-eating howler monkeys declined in the year of El Niño events, while those that ate fruit declined in the following year.

Dr Post said that further research would be needed to establish how the El Niño Southern Oscillation and climate change would affect many endangered species.

“Long-term studies like those we derived data from are incredibly valuable for illuminating effects of global warming,” he said. “Unfortunately such studies are also incredibly rare. We hope our results bring attention to the importance of maintaining long-term monitoring efforts.”

Source:
Times Online, “Climate change ‘will put endangered monkeys at further risk’“, accessed October 29, 2009

Obama Administration Backs Away From Israeli Settlement Halt

Sunday, November 01, 2009
01:51 Mecca time, 22:51 GMT

US ’softens’ on Israeli settlements

In their talks earlier Abbas rejected Clinton’s request to resume negotiations

The US has called for the resumption of peace talks between Israel and the Palestinians as soon as possible and without preconditions, an apparent climb down on earlier demands for Israel to halt settlement building.

The settlement issue should be considered as part of peace negotiations, Hillary Clinton, the US secretary of state, said at a news conference in Jerusalem late on Saturday.

“There has never been a precondition. It’s always been an issue within the negotiations,” Clinton said, adding that Israel had made “unprecedented” concessions on settlement building.

Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, who spoke alongside Clinton, said Palestinian demands for a full Israeli settlement freeze were being used to prevent the renewal of peace talks.

“It is actually being used as a pretext … as an obstacle that prevents the re-establishment of negotiations,” he said.

The administration of Barack Obama, the US president, had previously demanded that Israel halt all settlement building before negotiations could resume, a move that was applauded by the Palestinians but which brought the US and Israel to loggerheads.

The settlements are considered illegal under international law.

‘US climb down’

Jacky Rowland, Al Jazeera’s Jerusalem correspondent, said: “The Americans would never admit to backtracking, but if we watch the way that the language has changed and the way the emphasis has changed, it’s quite clear there has been a slide in the American position.

“Now, we hear Hillary Clinton urging an immediate resumption of talks - ‘get back on the path’, she said, really not wanting to look at conditions.

In their early months in office, Obama and Clinton called for a complete halt to settlement activity.

But after bringing Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president, and Netanyahu together at the United Nations in New York in September, Obama called only for “restraint” on settlements, not a “freeze”.

“We really watched Hillary Clinton fall into line with Israel,” Rowland said of Saturday’s press conference.

The move is unlikely to be accepted by the Palestinians.

“What the Palestinians are frustrated about is what seems to be the Obama administration’s wish to start from a clean slate,” Nour Odeh, Al Jazeera’s correspondent in Ramallah, said.

“The 1967 borders seems to be up for negotations, and that is something no Palestinian leader can accept.”

Palestinian rejection

Abbas earlier rejected Clinton’s request to resume negotiations when they met in Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates.

Saeb Erakat, the chief Palestinian negotiator, said Abbas rejected the US request because the recent deal reached between George Mitchell, the US Middle East envoy, and Israel “does not include a complete freeze of settlement activities”.

“The real problem is that Israel is not ready to discuss these issues and America is still unable to convince the Israelis to come back to
Erakat said that Israel had refused to halt construction of some 3,000 houses currently being built in the West Bank or any construction in annexed east Jerusalem.

Nabil Abu Rdeneh, a spokesman for Abbas, said the move reflected America’s inability to persuade Israel to freeze settlement building, but that Clinton had told the Palestinians that the US still considered the settlements illegal.

“The US position concerning these settlements - as we heard from Clinton in the UAE - was clear, that they consider all settlement activities illegal and this is an official US position which we heard many times before,” he told Al Jazeera.

“The real problem is that Israel is not ready to discuss these issues and America is still unable to convince the Israelis to come back to the ‘Road Map’,” he said, referring to a plan for steps to be taken by Israel and the Palestinians, first outlined in 2002.

“Even the previous American administration [under George Bush] in Annapolis agreed that settlement activity should be frozen.”

Mark Regev, Netanyahu’s spokesman, had no comment when asked what gestures Israel might be willing to make to help Abbas.

He reiterated Israel’s position that it is ready to relaunch talks without preconditions.

Negotiations between Israel and the Palestinians broke down late last year and have remained stalled, despite the renewed push by the US.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies

From the Inbox - Just $49,000 needed to run new ad against wolf hunts

We’re almost there! Help put us over the stop so we can run this urgent wolf-saving ad in The New York Times In just one day we raised $51,000 of the $100,000 needed to run this ad in the Times — where it will help build massive public pressure to prevent the next wolf hunts. Please donate now to help run the ad and save the wild wolves of the Northern Rockies. We’re so close to being able to run our hard-hitting new ad in The New York Times — a potentially life-saving ad that could help restore vital protections to gray wolves now being hunted down and killed in the Northern Rockies. Since just yesterday morning we’ve raised almost $51,000! We need only $49,000 more to run this powerful ad that can alert millions of Americans to this devastating attack on wildlife. Please, read the full ad now and see why thousands of NRDC supporters have already made a gift to help run it — and why YOU should, too. The slaughter of hundreds of wolves has already begun. In Idaho, 72 wolves have been gunned down in the hunt. In Montana, part of Yellowstone’s Cottonwood wolf pack was shot and killed right outside the boundary of the national park. Over the next year, more than 500 wolves could be shot to death by hunters and government agents …and the wolf population in the region could be reduced by a staggering 40 percent! Please, help us raise the last $49,000 we need to run our new ad immediately! Your donation could be the one that puts us over the top — and puts this important new ad in front of millions of Americans. Click here to read the full text of the ad — and help us run it now. I believe that when Americans learn about this open season on wolves, they’ll want to make sure it never happens again. But they won’t know unless we tell them. Our new ad is the best way to get the word out and ratchet up pressure on Interior Secretary Ken Salazar. He can restore protections to wolves with a stroke of his pen and prevent future hunts from taking place. It’s urgent that we act now. If 980 NRDC supporters like you chip in just $50 each, we can be in The New York Times within days — producing a massive public outcry that will begin almost immediately! Please put us over the top right now — and help run the ad that can save wolves from slaughter. Sincerely, Frances Beinecke President Natural Resources Defense Council

Honduran President Zelaya Upbeat on Deal

Sunday, November 01, 2009
05:03 Mecca time, 02:03 GMT

Zelaya upbeat on Honduras deal

The proposed deal that would return Zelaya to power still needs to be agreed by congress]

Manuel Zelaya, the ousted Honduran president, has said he is hopeful that his country’s political crisis will soon be over.

Speaking to Al Jazeera in an interview broadcast on Sunday, Zelaya called for congress to “reverse the coup” that forced him from power.

“If the national congress decides to maintain the coup the crisis will continue. If the congress reverses the coup, the crisis will be over,” he said by telephone from the Honduran capital.

Zelaya, who was removed from office in June, has been holed up in the Brazilian embassy in Tegucigalpa since he sneaked back into the country over a month ago.

His supporters and those of the de facto government have been at odds for four months, but an agreement on Friday raised the possibility that Zelaya could be returned to power ahead of elections in November, as long as congress agrees.

‘Path to succeed’

Zelaya told Al Jazeera that he was satisfied with the proposed agreement, which he hopes will see him restored to the presidency before the vote on November 29.

“It’s a deal that’s on a path to succeed,” he said.

“Roberto Michiletti [the de facto president of Honduras] is the president of congress and he is the one who signed the accord.”

But there is confusion over when congress will meet to sign off on the deal.

Comments by Arturo Corrales, a negotiator for the de facto government, soon after the proposed agreement was struck suggested that congress might not discuss the issue before the elections.

No date has been set for Congress to meet on the issue, but the earliest the deal could be debated is Tuesday, legislators said.

Monday is a holiday in Honduras and many legislators are busy campaigning for the upcoming vote that will also elect a successor to Zelaya.

Political standoff

Lucia Newman, Al Jazeera’s Latin America editor, said Zelaya was relying on the political opposition’s increasing popularity in the build up to the elections to push congress into agreeing the deal.

“I’m surprised that he’s that optimistic, but there is a calculation here - he’s depending on the fact his opponents in congress, the opposition party, are leading very substantially in the polls for the up coming election,” she said.

“The calculation is that unless President Zelaya is reinstated, his supporters will boycott those elections. That will take away legitimacy from those elections and it will make it very difficult for the next government to govern without instability.”

Many countries have warned they would not accept the elections if the June coup is not undone - suggesting that if congress approves the pact to reinstate Zelaya, it would win international recognition for the elections.

Zelaya was forced from power on June 28, the same day that he planned to hold a non-binding referendum on the constitution, a move that had been declared illegal by the Honduran congress and supreme court.

Opponents of Zelaya say that the public vote was aimed at winning support for an extension to presidential term limits, claims that he has denied.

Source: Al Jazeera

Zimbabwe News Bulletin: Law-making Mandate Vital for Pan-AfricanParliament

Law-making mandate vital for PAP

By Morris Mkwate in Midrand
Zimbabwe Sunday Mail

CLAD in adorable traditional apparel, she was as unmistakable as she was stunning. Her beauty, expressed in a variety of hues, was kaleidoscopic in nature.

She had traversed different routes and finally reached her destination. Africa had arrived, and though comprising many nations, her aspirations were carefully sutured together into one mission: the quest for full legislative powers.

“The African people expect us to be a legislative assembly,” said Mrs Rachel Shebesh, a Kenyan legislator.

“It makes no sense for us to continue to waste taxpayers’ funds by remaining a talk-shop whose advice may not even be taken on board.”

Bunge La Afrika, Parlamento Pan-Africano, Parlement PanAfricain or the Pan-African Parliament burst into life, as the First Ordinary Session of the assembly got underway in Midrand, South Africa, last week.

More than two hundred parliamentarians representing Africa’s rich assortment of ethnicity, language and religion converged on the Gallagher Convention Centre for the two-week session, which ends on Thursday.

Although various motions and topics ranging from the continent’s conflict hotbeds to climate change were up for deliberation, the quest for a law-making mandate remained one of the parliamentarians’ uppermost concerns during the first five sittings of the House.

PAP was constituted as the African Union’s legislative arm in March 2004 with its role taking on a consultative and advisory character.

The organ’s ultimate objective, which South African President Jacob Zuma pledged commitment to during the official opening of the session on Monday, is to evolve into “an institution with full legislative powers”.

Its constitutive protocol stipulates that the union’s arm will maintain its functions until it gains legislative muscle by way of amendment to the founding document.

Five years on, PAP is making moves in this direction. Members feel their functions are restrictive, adding little value to the multitudes of Africans they represent.

But being able to pass laws in the traditional sense of parliament would ensure member states advance their people’s interests, they say.

Last week, the assembly demonstrated its fervent resolve by capturing this dream on paper.

It produced a draft protocol which, if assented to by African leaders, will empower its members to pass laws that are binding on all AU-affiliate countries.

Among the 16 areas earmarked for legislation are education; public health; infrastructure; democracy, good governance and human rights; gender equality; mass and trans-continental immigration and migration; agriculture; AU citizenship and energy.

Chairman of the Rules, Privileges and Discipline Committee Mr Tidjani Serpos, who tabled the draft, said producing amendments to the parliament’s founding protocol was procedural.

He said only the AU could determine PAP’s jurisdiction.

“We are following procedure, but we are not certain whether the authorities will take all the proposals we are making on board,” he said.

Article 15 of the draft provides for the AU Commission to present a draft Act to PAP, which will in turn adopt the document with or without amendments.

The provision also mandates the Commission to introduce the draft Act through its initiative or at the parliament’s request.

It stipulates that the proposed legislation shall either be adopted or amended by an absolute majority vote of members present during a particular sitting.

After PAP assents, the Act shall be transmitted to the Commission, which will then forward it to the Assembly of AU Heads of State and Government. The Assembly shall be deemed to have adopted it if a simple majority of its members approve.

Each law shall have “a supra-magnitude” and will be “binding in its entirety and shall be directly applicable in each State Party”.

Part of Article 15 reads: “The Assembly may not reject an amendment from the PAP unless there is a qualified majority of two-thirds of its members.

“In such a case, the Act shall be referred back to the PAP with useful information on the reasons for rejection of the amendment for a second reading.

“At the second reading, taking into account the information provided by the Assembly, the PAP may: i) ratify the Act as adopted by the Assembly by simple majority vote; in this case the Act shall be deemed to have been adopted; reject the Act as referred by the Assembly, by a qualified majority of two-thirds of PAP members; in this case, the Act shall not be adopted.

“If a qualified majority is not attained during the vote at the PAP, the Act as referred back by the Assembly shall be deemed to have been adopted.”

If allowed to stand, the new arrangement, which is still under PAP’s consideration, would have far-reaching legal implications on AU members.

Each country would be expected to abide by PAP’s laws. And whether this is enforceable is the question.

“Of course, the laws will be enforceable,” said Mrs Shebesh.

“We have agreements in the continent’s various trading blocs and this would work because Governments will be required to implement laws through their national assemblies.

“Heads of State and Government are talking of continental integration. They need to look at our recommendations critically.”

President of the Chiefs’ Council of Zimbabwe and PAP member Chief Fortune Charumbira said conferring legislative powers on the organ would strengthen the institution’s role and also give greater impetus to Africa’s integration.

He was, however, quick to point out the need for the grouping of African parliamentarians to keep in step with the AU agenda.

“Of course, we support the transformation of PAP! The parliament will no longer remain in a weak position as that of a barking, but toothless bulldog,” he said.

“However, it is equally important to ensure we move in tandem with the programme of the union government of Africa.

“We also need to examine the principle of electing members through universal adult suffrage.

“If this is the route to be taken, we might risk constituting a PAP that has no roots in national parliaments.”

Dr Mohamed Elhouderi of Libya said moving towards legislative status was due.

He advocated a legislature that runs alongside other arms of government.

“For any parliament to be effective, it should have legislative powers. It should also be noted, however, that if we plead for a legislative assembly we should also plead for a pan-African government,” he said.

“The legislative power of the parliament should be agreed to by member States or by a majority of them.

“If countries assent, they are then called upon to abide by its decisions. The pan-African authority would then put in place measures to enforce the laws.”

‘We are glad that we are talking’

Sunday Mail Reporter

PRESIDENT Mugabe yesterday said Zanu-PF and the MDC-T are engaging each other to find a lasting solution to the problems affecting the smooth running of the inclusive Government.

He said the problem was an internal issue which needed to be solved by the three political parties in the Government.

The President said this while addressing thousands of mourners at the burial of national hero Cde Misheck Chando at the National Heroes Acre.

“We are glad that we are talking,” said President Mugabe, who is the Head of State and Government and Commander-in-Chief of the Zimbabwe Defence Forces.

“We can not report it anywhere. The UN says it’s your issue and this is our issue.

We settle it here, it’s not for others.”

President Mugabe said there was a need to ensure that the gains made so far by the inclusive Government were not reversed.

He said the three political parties formed the inclusive Government in pursuance of the ideals of the liberation struggle.

The ideals, said President Mugabe, included bringing unity and peace to the nation and putting ideas together to improve the status of the country and the people.

“We would remain in our three different parties, but we bid ourselves to work together.

“When you have as a party, and even as individuals, taken a stand that you shall work together with your political neighbours and your neighbours reciprocate it, then the requirement is that we indeed continue, step by step, and work together.

“Whatever the difficulties become our difficulties together. Whatever the positive steps become our achievements together.”

President Mugabe said there was no logic in the MDC-T statement that it was disengaging from the Cabinet and the Council of Ministers but remaining in the Government.

“For one party on an odd day to decide we shall not be fully in, we shall have one leg in and one leg out, then you begin to wonder: Have I entered into agreement with persons who do not understand?” he said.

“MDC-T iri kuti isu tabuda, asi hatina kubuda. We are out, but we are still in. Hameno language iyoyo. Professor (referring to MDC leader Professor Arthur Mutambara, who was at the national shrine) ndivo vangatoiziva.

“This logic where you agree and disagree, where you disagree and agree. It’s quite new.”

Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai and members of his party were conspicuous by their absence at the burial.

President Mugabe said the Government must one day think of fighting the illegal sanctions imposed by Western countries in international courts.

He said the Western countries wanted the sanctions to result in illegal regime change.

He said there was a need for unity, to prevent the machinations of the Western countries from succeeding.

“Are you prepared to sacrifice so that our country can be united?” he said.

“We may have our various groups, different cultural backgrounds, but that is a source of wealth. Let that not stand in the way of our national togetherness and our national ethos.

“But if we do not recognise our sovereignty and we allow ourselves to come under the direction of neo-colonialists, then we are to blame.”

President Mugabe said the country’s sovereignty should be respected by other countries, especially those in Europe and America who wanted to interfere.

The President described Cde Chando, whose Chimurenga name was Cde Makasha, as “a brave and courageous cadre with a sense of sacrifice”.

He said he first met Cde Chando at Chimoio in Mozambique when Cde Chando and other leaders came from Tete to meet him and Cde Edgar Tekere at the war base.

There were some students, said President Mugabe, from the university such as Cde Christopher Mutsvangwa, the late Cde Zororo Duri and Cde Gula Ndebele at Chimoio.

“They always had debates with Cde Makasha and they were saying they had logical ones from the university.

“But Cde Makasha was saying I have my degrees which work here in the bush.”

President Mugabe said Cde Makasha was known for his excellence in warfare and leadership.

“He started as an ordinary cadre and then a training cadre.”

The President said there was need to urgently dualise the country’s roads to avoid accidents.

Cde Chando died in a car accident on 23 October along Shamva Road.

He was the Senator for Bindura Shamva constituency and is survived by two wives
and 18 children.

PM plays golf as nation mourns

Sunday Mail Reporter

WHILE thousands of Zimbabweans gathered at the National Heroes’ Acre yesterday to pay their last respects to gallant freedom fighter Cde Misheck Chando, Prime Minister Mr Morgan Tsvangirai was taking it easy, hitting the green at Ruwa Country Club.

The Sunday Mail crew caught up with the Prime Minister and his contingent at the Ruwa Country Club along the Harare-Mutare road playing golf at around 11am, the same time President Mugabe was addressing mourners at the national shrine.

The Prime Minister, who has been attending State functions including the burial of national heroes since the signing of the GPA by the three political parties last September, opted to boycott yesterday’s event following his announcement two weeks ago that his party was disengaging from Zanu-PF.

Efforts to speak to the Prime Minister soon after his game failed as his aides dismissed the news crew.

“Ibvai pano izvozvi! Togona kukuisai patight as Mugabe’s regime does. (Get off this place now before we sort you out. We are capable of doing the same as Mugabe’s regime),’’ said one of his aides identified as a Mr Ushe.

“This is his private business and you are invading his privacy. You can only do that in consultation with him. For now he does not want to speak to anyone. I am warning you for the last time that you leave us alone, now!’’ insisted Mr Ushe.

As the news crew drove out of the premises, one of the Prime Minister’s security vehicles followed behind, presumably to ensure that their warnings had been heeded.

The MDC-T president announced two weeks ago that his party was severing ties with Zanu-PF, which he accused of acting in bad faith. Mr Tsvangirai said his party’s position would stand until President Mugabe resolved all the outstanding issues he said were stalling the inclusive Government.

Zanu-PF has dismissed the pull-out as a non-event. President Mugabe this weekend assured the nation that he would not allow the disengagement to affect State operations.

He said MDC-T had proved that it was “not a true and genuine partner”.

MDC-T: Spoilt brat behaving badly

By Munyaradzi Huni

OVER the last few weeks, the MDC-T has been behaving like a spoilt brat who thinks that just because his big brother is loaded with dirty cash, he can go around threatening and bullying everyone in the vicinity.

The MDC-T leadership has grown so bigheaded and thickheaded that they are threatening Zanu-PF with elections if they finally decide to pull out of the inclusive Government.

Of course, the MDC-T knows that they have no powers to call for any election as, according to the Constitution, only President Mugabe has that authority.

And this is despite the fact that even if the MDC-T pulls out of the inclusive Government, there is no provision anywhere that presidential elections should be held soon after because President Mugabe was not made the President by the Global Political Agreement. He was sworn into office on June 29 2008, after winning the June 27 presidential run-off. Only Prime Minister Tsvangirai, his deputies and Cabinet ministers were born out of the September 15 2008 GPA.

The MDC-T has become so reckless that it is even threatening that the supposed elections would be run by “Sadc, AU and UN”. Again, these are just hallucinations because the law clearly states that whenever the elections are held, they would be run by the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission. Just like in all previous elections Sadc, the AU and the UN can send election observers following invitations from the Government.

The MDC-T leadership is drunk with its parallel government funds, drunk with the multi-donor trust funds, drunk with NGO funds and drunk with the little trinkets that are being shoved into their personal pockets. It’s true — dirty money makes people go bonkers.

Just because of one white Rhodie called Roy Bennett, the MDC-T leadership has decided to disregard its supporters who recently called on the party to remain in the inclusive Government. Of course, it is public knowledge that the MDC is a party of unrepentant former Rhodies, but the MDC-T leadership seems to be taking its recklessness to suicidal levels.

First the MDC-T leadership makes the “disengagement” decision and, as if that is not bad enough, the leadership goes on to say they will call for elections in the event that they pull out of the inclusive Government.

The people on the ground and even the MDC-T supporters are not in the mood for elections. Despite the challenges and the differences, the people want Zanu-PF and the MDC formations to work together because this has brought peace and stability in the country. The people are waiting for the inclusive Government to revive the economy and they want production to increase in industry so that they get jobs.

There is no one on the ground who supports the idea of holding elections anytime soon, save for the MDC-T leadership and its cronies in civil society who know that election time is money-making time.

And indeed the dirty money is flowing. Of that US$73 million that President Obama pledged during Prime Minister Tsvangirai’s visit to the US, USAID has said US$2,4 million will go towards parliamentary strengthening; US$3,2 million towards elections and constitution making; US$3,8 million towards the rule of law; US$2,7 towards consensus building; US$1,5 million towards media; US$1,9 towards victims of torture; US$5,8 towards civil society/local government capacity building; US$4,1 million towards maternal and child health, including TB, and US$1,2 million towards family planning.

This is serious regime-change funding and the imperialists are making sure that Zanu-PF doesn’t get a cent. During his presentation to the Sub-commit-tee on African Affairs on September 30 2009, in a paper entitled “Exploring US Policy Options towards Zimbabwe’s Transition”, the USAID acting assistant administrator for Africa, Mr Earl Gast, said:

“All USAID assistance is carefully targeted to support reformers within the Government and civil society.

No funds go directly to the transitional government as support is delivered in the form of goods and services through grantees and contractors hired and monitored in compliance with standard US government procurement procedures,” said Mr Gast.

Well, it’s common knowledge that the “reformers” in Government are those that are fighting to wrest power from Zanu-PF. People like the Minister of Finance, Mr Tendai Biti, who want the country to declare itself a Highly Indebted Poor Country (HIPC) with the sinister objective of paralysing the economy for easy takeover by the imperialists.

Mr Gast even goes to the extent of saying “furthermore, USAID will help democratic political parties rebuild their structures after the movement of many key members into Government service”.

According to the US, democracy started in Zimbabwe in 1999 with the formation of the MDC and so the MDC is the only “democratic political party” that will benefit from the imperialist funds.

While pouring funds to the MDC, the US is making sure that Zanu-PF is starved and they are not making it a secret anymore.

“The donors have agreed to retain targeted sanctions on President Mugabe and Zanu-PF hardliners until a credible reform-minded government is evident,” said Mr Gast. Put simply, Mr Gast was saying sanctions will remain in place until the MDC gets into power.

The vice-president and senior fellow at the Centre for Global Development, Mr Todd J. Moss, told the sub-committee that “the US should find ways to provide ring-fenced support for activities and select ministries involved in restarting critical public services”.

In his presentation to the sub-committee, the US Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, Mr Johnnie Carson, was even more explicit in confirming that the US government is providing funds to PM Tsvangirai’s office to run a parallel government.

He said: “Our assistance to Zimbabwe seeks to lay the groundwork for a return to democracy and prosperity by supporting democratic voices and civil society, including support to the Prime Minister’s office for communications and other capacity building.”

What is more worrying, however, from the presentations made to the sub-committee is that the US has hatched a plan to “invade” the rural areas that are traditionally a Zanu-PF stronghold and is planning to dangle its dirty funds to farmers.

Mr Carson spoke about “our recent notification and consultation on new targeted programmes in the agriculture and education sectors”.

In her presentation to the sub-committee, the president of Mercy Corps, Ms Nancy Lindborg, said: “The agriculture ‘value chain’ of economic actors and functions that brings goods from individual farmers to processing to market to sell is in extreme disrepair.

“Vital private-sector networks of agricultural input suppliers, product vendors, warehousers and traders have largely broken down. Assistance in rebuilding these value chains will be a vital component of efforts to restore agriculture production and revitalise the sector.”

Not surprisingly, in recent months, the Government has been promised millions of funds meant for farmers, including small-scale farmers in the rural areas. The idea is to buy the farmers in preparation for elections that the MDC-T is calling for.

With all the funds flowing and the game plan being put into effect from Washington and London, the MDC-T can’t contain its misplaced and miscalculated excitement about elections.

In any case, will Zanu-PF ever agree to go for elections with the sanctions still in place?

In the unlikely case that President Mugabe calls for elections, has anyone in the MDC-T leadership bothered to ask how Zanu-PF will respond? Just a reminder, during the liberation struggle Zanla and Zipra were fighting against an enemy that was armed to the teeth, but still the war was won.

Now the MDC is loaded with funds and is being fed with all sorts of imperialist ideas from the US and the UK, just how will Zanu-PF respond? Of course, the MDC-T’s big brother may be awash with cash, but the real deal happens here in Zimbabwe. The MDC-T should wake up from its drunken stupor and there is no need for it to be over-excited.

A little piece of advice: The MDC-T should be careful what it is asking for, otherwise it will be served the meal in a plate that will be too hot to handle. They say forewarned is forearmed.

Business sheds crocodile tears over MDC-T’s latest political stunt

AFRICAN FOCUS By Tafataona P. Mahoso

First it was the tourism sector which asked why Prime Minister Morgan Tsvangirai could be so callous as to announce MDC-T’s purported pullout from the inclusive Government right at the climax of the Sanganai/ Hlanganani tourism promotion party!

Last week it was The Financial Gazette which asked the same questions in its November 29 2009 editorial called “Stop hurting us”. The Financial Gazette used complaints by Industry and International Trade Minister Welshman Ncube, that the MDC-T’s latest political stunt, which was carried out for the benefit of cameras belonging to sworn detractors of Zimbabwe, might stop foreign investors who were just about to partner the Zimbabwe Iron and Steel Company (Zisco).

Let us deal with first things first: Foolish announcements of crises — whether called “humanitarian” or “constitutional” or “financial” — do hurt companies and hurt the economy, if they are perceived as credible. Indeed, Michael Regester and Judy Larkin in Risk Issues and Crisis Management have researched the sort of damage and costs which real crises have inflicted on corporations:

“The top 250 companies in the UK, when surveyed by the Association of Insurance and Risk Managers in 2000, claimed that damage to reputation was the biggest business risk they faced . . . Earlier research . . . found that the total value of the FTSE 100 companies was £842 billion. Goodwill — of which reputation is a part — accounted for 71 percent of total market capitalisation.”

In 1990 it was 44 percent of total value. This means the cost of risk to reputation for business has been rising together with the growth of media coverage.

The same Financial Gazette then states that Minister Ncube in his complaint spoke for the entire national business leadership in Zimbabwe! Ncube “may not have realised that he was actually speaking on behalf of all the company executives operating in the country along with their shareholders”.

Now, why are we suggesting that we are being showered with crocodile tears?
We say so because there is no worse attempt to damage a country’s reputation deliberately than campaigning for sanctions to be imposed on that country.

Welshman Ncube, corporate executives and The Financial Gazette have for the last 10 years contributed to the catastrophic damage of reputation inflicted on this country, which damage has brought the living conditions of the majority of this country backwards to the dark ages of colonial Rhodesia, according to Christopher Dell and the Centre for Global Development in Washington DC.

Welshman Ncube, Zimbabwe’s corporate executives and The Financial Gazette have long been aware of the claim Dell and the CGD made in 2005 that the economic crisis precipitated by the regime change onslaught on Zimbabwe in opposition to land redistribution brought the living conditions of the majority of the people back to 1953 levels within the six-year period from 2000 to 2005.

Why did they not then campaign against the worst weapon used to destroy the business reputation of Zimbabwe, the illegal and racist sanctions imposed on the people by the Anglo-Saxon axis led by the UK and US and invited by the MDC formations?

Being patriotic and business-wise should have caused The Financial Gazette, Welshman Ncube and Zimbabwe’s business executives to be sensitive to any and all forms of reckless damage to the reputation of Zimbabwe. They should not suddenly wake up to this reckless damage just because the MDC formations are now part of government and Morgan Tsvangirai is now Prime Minister.

Such a sudden awakening in itself must be examined for its sincerity; otherwise it is yet another form of manipulation for the same regime change agenda which these forces have pursued for the last 10 years.

If, indeed, The Financial Gazette is announcing a change of heart and a change of editorial policy, to become truly sensitive to attacks on Zimbabwe’s business reputation at all times, then it must say so and we would most welcome the change.

What do we mean by saying there has never been any worse attack on the business reputation of Zimbabwe than the campaign by the MDC formations to invite illegal sanctions?

We mean that since most people around the world would find it unbelievable that a political party claiming to represent the citizens of its country can join hands with foreign capital to invite sanctions on the same people; since the idea on its face value sounds so lunatic; the tendency of the campaigners is to design the most sophisticated, most elaborate ways to lie in order to make what is illegal, immoral and racist look noble and justified.

That is what this country and its people have suffered for more than 10 years: lies, lies and more lies made believable to foreigners only because the people paid to do most of the lying are natives and the papers and journalists paid to convey the lies also claim to be national precisely because they are allowed to edit and publish the lies from within the victimised country!

The MDC formations were still united when in 2000 their top leaders drafted the Bill which the US adopted as its sanctions law against Zimbabwe in 2001. The MDC formations were still together on January 29 2004 when they published their economic propaganda document called Restart: Our Path to Social Justice — the MDC’s Economic Programme for Reconstruction, Stabilisation, Recovery and Transformation.

The Financial Gazette then did not tell the people of Zimbabwe that Restart was in fact worse than Retard. It was a propaganda attack on the business reputation of Zimbabwe intended to deepen illegal sanctions. The so-called corporate executives complaining about Tsvangirai’s latest political stunt should read that Retard document again. It reads exactly as it should: a demonisation tract masquerading as a development blueprint:

“Two decades of misrule and poor governance at the hands of a rapacious clique of power-hungry politicians have transformed the Jewel of Africa that is Zimbabwe into a failed state.

“It is only the MDC that is capable of reversing this tragedy and turning Zimbabwe into a success story it should be. To tackle the economic crisis the MDC has drawn up a comprehensive economic strategy, Restart . . .”

And the link between this gibberish and MDC-T’s alleged pullout is the Rhodesian lobby. Zimbabwe was the jewel of Africa when it was ruled by Ian Smith with Roy Bennett as one of his killers. So the MDC-T is to return this country to Rhodesia.

Dell says it has already gone back to 1953! The document then did exactly what we have said natives calling for sanctions against their own people are bound to do, that is to lie and to exaggerate:

“As is now well known, the March 2002 presidential was stolen,” the MDC document declared.

And indeed, the demonisation of the country over the 2002 election was the worst in the history of independent Zimbabwe at that point.

So, for now, we are not impressed by The Financial Gazette’s claims on behalf of Welshman Ncube or the business executives on October 29 2009 because they amount at best to a preposterous cover-up. At worst they suggest gross manipulation of public opinion by inflating the value of MDC-T’s presence in the IG.

But is it true that The Financial Gazette and business executives contributed to the destruction of Zimbabwe’s business reputation for 10 years? What started in 1997 as company shut-outs organised in co-operation with the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Unions (ZCTU) became more elaborate and more sophisticated in 2007 and 2008.

The pattern was widely acknowledged as far back as 2003, following the defeat of the MDC by Zanu-PF in the 2002 Presidential elections.

For instance, on September 4 2003, the Daily News published a long letter to the editor which was called “Cathy Buckle can’t fool everyone all the time”.

The letter showed there were some within the regime change camp who were still proud that the MDC had invited Britain and its Anglo-Saxon allies to wage economic war against Zimbabwe in order to coerce the voters to abandon the liberation movement in exchange for sugar, mealie meal and other handouts. But there were others, such as Cathy Buckle, who were beginning to sense that openly celebrating an economic war against one’s own people posed serious risks for the opposition.

The people might become as clear in 2003 as they were in 1978. So Cathy Buckle wrote at length to deny the existence of British-sponsored illegal sanctions altogether.

But Denford Magora wrote a reply to Buckle which the Daily News published on September 4 2003. His letter stated, among other things, that:

“Britain and America have a tried and tested method of getting rid of regimes they do not like. The game plan always involves making sure that the population of a country suffer enough to rise up against the incumbent government. That was the plan in Iraq and, when it failed, United States President George W. Bush and British Prime Minister Tony Blair dropped all pretence and invaded that country.

By opposing bailouts by the international community, the West is imposing sanctions on Zimbabwe. These sanctions have nothing to do with Mugabe or Zanu-PF.

They are designed to ensure that the people of Zimbabwe do not feel comfortable, with the result that they rise up against Mugabe and chase him out of the country.”

But, precisely because the vote came through the gun, Britain and its allies know that it is easier to manipulate the same vote now through sponsorship, sugar, and biscuits than it is to try to sponsor the gun. This is because it is harder to bring in special forces and keep them hidden and working for a long time, without their being discovered, than it is to use about 400 to 500 British, North American and European companies, company subsidiaries and the 2 500 NGOs already operating inside Zimbabwe.

So, on September 11 2003, one Richard Chauke, who was close to the operations of industry then, wrote another letter to the Daily News to complain about companies who were benefiting from the workers and resources of Zimbabwe using profits from those same workers’ labour and resources to wage an economic war on the entire population.

“Industry really plays politics, too, perhaps with more (material) vigour than all the politicians. Truly, industry cannot be spared for its role in the Zimbabwe crisis. It is unfortunate that where industry acts politically, economists are quick to jump onto the grand stage to lecture us righteously about laws of supply and demand.

“There is no doubt that industry miscalculated badly towards the 2002 presidential elections. It fired many workers, the so-called downsizing.

“Some companies shut down deliberately, expecting to come back to life after the elections. Others even relocated to neighbouring countries in a bid to frustrate their workers.

“The povo in rural areas were not spared either. Some goods seen on the shelves in the evening were not available the next morning. Goods on the shelves were deliberately pegged at abnormal prices and many economic excuses were given, such as lack of foreign currency and fuel shortages . . . Politics is in the ability to have control and power over the people so that an individual, group on institution even determines what people eat or acquire. Therefore, industry played all sorts of games possible to frustrate workers in order to woo them to vote for its crippled baby — the Movement for Democratic Change . . . We were branded cowards because we voted incorrectly . . .”

We quote these passages at length because they were written by people using their own original experiences and observations. Magora emphasised one side of the equation, the role of Anglo-Saxon imperialism and racism in global economic warfare.

Richard Chauke emphasised the other side of the equation, the role of foreign companies in a small and independent economy where the people want independence, sovereignty, economic empowerment and indigenisation. But the two wrote in exactly the same month describing one chain of events which were a harbinger for 2008.