Climate change: Gulf stream collapse could be like a disaster movie

Scientists predict an ice age could be provoked in a matter of months
Robin McKie, Science Editor
The Observer, Sunday 29 November 2009
The next Ice Age could take only weeks to engulf Britain. Scientists say the last great disruption to the Gulf Stream 12,800 years ago took only a couple of months to trigger a massive plunge in temperatures across Europe.
“It was as if Europe had been shifted 20 degrees north and Ireland moved to Svalbard,” said Bill Patterson of Saskatchewan University.
In the Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow, an Ice Age was set off in a single day when the Gulf Stream was disrupted. “That is silly,” said Patterson. “It couldn’t happen that quickly. However, previous estimates that it would take decades to switch off the Gulf Stream are not backed by our work. It could happen in a couple of months.”
The Gulf Stream carries tropical heat from the Caribbean to northern Europe but is already being disrupted by meltwater pouring from the Arctic as global warming intensifies. One day it may switch off completely, say scientists.
Such an event occurred 12,800 years ago when a vast lake – created from melting glaciers at the end of last Ice Age – overflowed and poured into the north Atlantic, blocking the Gulf Stream. Europe froze – almost instantly, said Patterson.
His team analysed mud samples from Lough Monreagh in Ireland and discovered layers of white sediment made up of calcite crystals from algae. “Then abruptly the sediment turned black. This stuff contained no biological material.” In other words, all life in the lake had been extinguished in less than three months. “It was very sudden,” added Patterson, “and it could happen again.”

20 proven ways to save the earth

Tackling climate change may be daunting but it is entirely feasible using existing technology

Charles Clover

1 Solar power
Spain is leading the way with solar power. The PS10 solar tower is already in operation near Seville, producing electricity with the aid of more than 600 large movable mirrors called heliostats. The country’s largest solar-power station, which will store heat for up to 15 hours in molten salt, is under construction in Cadiz. It will be operational in 2011. Heat-generated steam will drive a turbine that will power 25,000 homes.
2 Carbon capture and storage
Coal and waste materials are burnt in permanently-running power stations that provide electricity, heat and sometimes hydrogen. The carbon dioxide this creates is captured and sent, safely, to be disposed of in disused oil wells and aquifers. Carbon capture and storage has been practised in the North Sea by the Norwegian company Statoil since 1996. EU leaders have promised around 12 pilot projects attached to coal-fired power stations by 2020.

3 Smart meters
Home electricity is likely to be managed increa-singly by smart meters to cut wastage. The Italians are leading the way. Some 85% of households have one; there are more in Italy than in the US.
4 Wind power
The government’s Climate Change Committee estimates that wind power could provide 30% of Britain’s energy by 2020. Offshore wind power is the key to that and the UK is already the world leader in installed offshore wind. The next development is likely to be wind farms on floating platforms anchored in deeper water. The first floating turbines were inaugurated 10 kilometres off the Norwegian coast in June 2009.
5 Nuclear power
Thanks to its reliability, nuclear power is already enjoying a renaissance with 53 reactors under construction in 13 countries, notably China, South Korea, India and Russia. A series of applications to build reactors, offering safety improvements on existing designs, is being made in the UK; the government may introduce a carbon tax to cover the nuclear industry’s unpredictable costs. A repository to contain Britain’s existing legacy of nuclear waste, however, remains 25 years off.
6 Solar panels that heat water have long been used in sunnier parts of the world and are becoming more economic in UK.
7 Personal Rapid Transit
By the 2030s, many more vehicles will be powered by mains electricity or fuel cells run on hydrogen produced by renewable or nuclear energy. Personal Rapid Transit, based on existing technology, will eventually bring driver-less trains to our cities. Prototypes have been tested at Heathrow’s Terminal 5.
8 Carbon trading
New financial mechanisms, funded by carbon trading, are likely to be set in place in Copenhagen in December to tackle the destruction of the tropical forests such as the Amazon.
9 Wave power
Britain has the potential to dominate the global wave-power market, with 25% of wave technologies being developed here. Two different snake-like devices that move up and down with the waves offer the best prospects. Pilot wave farms are in operation off Portugal and Scotland. Wave power is 15 years behind wind power in being commercialised so it is unlikely to make a significant contribution to the national grid before the mid-2020s.
10 Eco aircraft that resemble “flying wings” have been designed by the Royal Aeronautical Society and shown to be up to 25% more efficient (picture 4, above). Boeing has been looking at the propfan, which promises 35% fuel efficiencies over current jet engines.
11 Tidal power
Existing technology, such as the La Rance tidal power plant in Brittany or the proposed Severn barrage, is expensive — but although the barrage is environmentally damaging, it could, in theory, supply 5% of the national grid.
12 Solar roofs that generate electricity should become more attractive to home- owners next year due to a new tariff that reimburses them for surplus energy they produce.
13 Solar electricity-generating cells
Where roof space is limited, transparent cells that can be fitted to windows have been invented by Konarka, a Massachusetts company.
14 Reversible heat pumps
Many homes in the countryside that have enough land are already using these pumps, which use the ground or local aquifers as heat stores; heat is dumped in summer and recovered from them in winter. These offer substantial savings on using gas.
15 Second-generation biofuels such as algae are known to yield up to 100 times the energy per hectare as corn, soy or sugar cane crops. Some 12% of annual global jet fuel is likely to be derived from algae, or pond scum, by 2030, according to the Carbon Trust.
16 LED bulbs give up to 95% savings on traditional lightbulbs. Far better ones can be expected. Philips Research have developed a non-mechanical means of electrically adjusting the size and shape of a beam of light.
17 Combined heat and power
In Denmark, high-density urban homes take hot water from specialised municipal power stations. There are many more opportunities to use more waste heat produced in IT and power generation.
18 Air travel can increasingly be replaced by better video conferencing.
19 Breakthroughs in existing technologies could change everything. Better batteries are a number-one priority if electric cars are to go from 40 miles between charges to 400. Lithium-air batteries offer the best hope of storing energy in cars.
20 Solar reflectors could generate solar power in space and beam it back to collectors on Earth in the form of microwaves.

Newman Chiadzwa Sets the Record Straight on Zimbabwe Diamonds

Newman Chiadzwa sets the record straight

Zimbabwe Herald

THE discovery of diamonds in the Chiadzwa area of Marange resulted in a glut of illegal panners flooding the district. What followed were tales of murder, aggravated assault and rape cases. The community responded by forming Chiadzwa Mineral Resources to try and benefit from the resources while Government sent security forces to deal with the illegal activities. The Herald caught up with Newman “Chief” Chiadzwa, the chairman of the Chiadzwa Mineral Resources to talk more of the find of the decade.

Q. Who is Newman Chiadzwa? Is he a chief as has been reported?

A. No! I have never claimed to be a chief at any stage in my life.

Q. But who are you?

A. Newman Chiadzwa is a son to Headman Chiadzwa and the current chairman of the development committee, Chiadzwa Mineral Resources.

Q. What does the committee do?

A. We promote development in Chiadzwa especially in relation to the discovery of diamonds in the area and what the community expects from such a discovery.

That is how we came up with the Chiadzwa Community Development Trust (Chiadzwa Mineral Resources), which I chair.

Q. What are these expectations?

A. Our expectations as a community are that we are also given a stake in the ventures that are being negotiated by Government with some private investors and the exploration of diamonds since we believe that the community deserves a stake in it.

The community also believes that their standard of living should have improved from the time diamonds were discovered in the area.

Q. Did the community know that there were diamonds in the area?

A. Over the years no one knew but we discovered them around 2005/6

Q. But your area still remains one of the least developed areas in the country. How do you expect the area to benefit?

A. Firstly, we would expect Government and private investors to look at the situation of boreholes, roads, clinics and the general infrastructure in the area.

We want companies that are coming into the area to source their manpower from the community.

The community is also looking at getting a substantial stake in the mining ventures.

Q. Some companies have already set up shop. How far have they gone in assisting the community?

A. We are still negotiating with the Minister of Mines and Mining Development (Obert Mpofu) and the companies that have invested in our area. We are still negotiating to see how we can fit in as one family - the Government, the investors and the community.

Q. How did the community relate to the illegal diamond activities that occurred before Government secured the area?

A. When the illegal activities started in Chiadzwa the community was gripped with fear as most of the so-called gwejas (diamond panners) used to move around villages stealing goats and chicken. They used to stay in the mountains, cutting down trees, putting up fires everywhere and this turned out to be bad for the community. Our women were even afraid to go and fetch firewood in the bush because of the gwejas that were all over the area.

Q. What effort did you make as a community to deal with the illegal activities?

A. That is why we formed the development committee, the one that I chair. We had youths trying to screen strangers, trying to establish where they were coming from.

In fact, it is the community that asked for the army and police to move in after failing to contain the illegal activities.

Q. Are you happy that Government moved into the area?

A. We were happy that Government sent in security forces to stop the illegal activities and the eventual arrival of private investors with their own security.

It is now the right time for Government to scale down the presence of security forces from the area.

Q. Is there truth in reports that people were killing each other for diamonds?

A. We have had reports that the illegal panners were killing each other, especially when they went into the fields and they try to share but disagree and fought. Some got injured and some got killed.

Q. Are there mass graves in the diamond fields or did you ever come across unidentified bodies found on the fields?

A. There could have been some bodies in the mountains where the panners stayed because they used to kill each or just buried each other there.

When we heard of any of these deaths we notified the police.

Q. You are one of the people who volunteered evidence to the Kimberly Process Certification Scheme review team of alleged abuse at the fields, what exactly happened?

A. I just told the KPCS that there were some diamond panners all over the area but we had pleaded with Government to make sure that the people are moved out of the area.

The review team saw the panners and I don’t know what they discussed with them because I was not part of the exercise.

I only helped by driving them (KPCS review team) into the area but did not give any interview or volunteer evidence to them.

Q. But you recently wrote a letter to Government apologising for not following protocol, what had happened?

A. Actually, when the companies and other people moved in, we discussed this and we responded with emotions because that was not what we expected as a community. In trying to make sure that the community benefited we tended to become emotional. At the same time we were being denied access to the authorities.

You try to make an appointment and they tell you that they are too busy and this is where the frustrations were coming from.

Q. Now, how do you describe your relationship with Government?

A. As you are aware that the Mines Minister invited me to be part of the delegation (ministerial delegation that visited Chiadzwa recently) and we discussed with the people on the ground how they would want to assist in developing the area. We were all there with all Government agents to map a way forward.

Q. From your discussions with Government, what do you think the future holds for the people of Chiadzwa?

A. Government has made an undertaking to give a stake to the community and we are anxiously waiting for this to be fulfilled. We are waiting for Government to deliver.

Q. On a rather personal note, you are facing charges of illegal possession of diamonds. What is your response to that?

A. Unfortunately, it’s a matter before the courts and I cannot comment on that.

Q. Are you a diamond dealer?

A. No! I am not.

Q. So what do you do? What business are you into?

A. I am a curator, with a number of art galleries within and outside the country.

–sydney.kawadza@zimpapers.co.za

The Bootstrap Theory of Propaganda

The bootstrap theory of propaganda

By Stephen Gowans
Zimbabwe Herald

THE New York Times and US politicians are, through assertion and repetition, attempting to create as common knowledge the idea that Iran has a nuclear weapons programme and that the last presidential election in Iran was fraudulent, even though there is no evidence to back either claim.

In the November 23, 2009 New York Times edition, reporter Alexei Barrionuevo writes that “Brazil’s ambitions to be a more important player on the global diplomatic stage are crashing headlong into the efforts of the United States and other Western powers to rein in Iran’s nuclear arms program” (my emphasis.)

This treats the existence of a nuclear arms program in Iran as an established finding.

Yet, Tehran denies it has a nuclear weapons programme and the UN nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, says it “‘has no concrete proof’ that Iran ever sought to make nuclear arms…”

The 2007 US National Intelligence Estimate disagrees, in part, claiming that Iran had a nuclear weapons programme in 2003, but says that Iran has since disbanded it. In February, “US officials said that… no new evidence has surfaced to undercut the findings of the 2007.”

According to the head of the IAEA, Mohamed ElBaradei, the agency has “not seen concrete evidence that Tehran has an ongoing nuclear weapons programme . . . But somehow, many people are talking about how Iran’s nuclear program is the greatest threat to the world… In many ways,

I think the threat has been hyped.

Yes, there’s concern about Iran’s future intentions and Iran needs to be more transparent with the IAEA and the international community . . . But the idea that we’ll wake up tomorrow and Iran will have a nuclear weapon is an idea that isn’t supported by the facts as we have seen them so far.”

Barrionuevo isn’t alone in asserting, without evidence, that Iran is building nuclear arms. US Representative Eliot Engel, chairman of the House Subcommittee on the Western Hemisphere, told Barrionuevo that “the world is trying to figure out how to prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons”, assuming, as a given, that Iran is trying to have nuclear weapons.

Engel also says that Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad “is illegitimate with his own people,” a reference to the disputed presidential election Iran’s opposition claims Ahmadinejad won through fraud.

Barrionuevo points to critics who worry that a visit to Brazil by Ahmadinejad will “legitimise” the Iranian president “just five months after what most of the world sees as his fraudulent re-election.”

Yet there is no evidence the election was stolen.

All that backs the allegation is the assertion of the opposition that the election was fraudulent and “what most of the world” believes, this being based on the Western media treating opposition claims as legitimate.

This is a circular process. Most of the world believes the election was fraudulent because that’s what the principal source of information on this matter, the media, led it to believe. Now the New York Times offers the fact that the assertion is widely believed as evidence it is true.

This might be called the bootstrap theory of propaganda: legitimise an assertion by treating it as true, and when most of the world believes it’s true, offer the reality that everyone believes it to be true as evidence it is.

The only relevant evidence that would allow us to determine whether the outcome of the election was crooked or fair is provided by the sole methodologically rigorous poll conducted prior to the election.

It was sponsored by the international arm of the US Republican Party, the International Republican Institute, hardly a booster of Ahmadinejad. Carried out three weeks prior to the election, the poll “showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin – greater than his actual apparent margin of victory”.

The pollsters, Ken Ballen and Patrick Doherty, concluded that “Ahmadinejad is who Iranians want.” The process of creating commonly held beliefs that have no evidentiary basis, and doing so through assertion and repetition, is not new.

To justify an illegal war on Yugoslavia, Western politicians, and the Western media in train, asserted without evidence that genocide was in progress in Kosovo in 1999.

Tens of thousands of corpses were expected to be found littering the “killing fields” of the then-Serb province. But when forensic investigators were dispatched to Kosovo after the war to document the genocide, the bodies never turned up.

By frequently repeating unsubstantiated claims, people were led to believe that systematic killings on a mass scale were being carried out, and that the West had a moral obligation to intervene. The public was duped.

Similarly, Western politicians “sexed up” intelligence on weapons of mass destruction to justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

The Western media went along; acknowledging only after public support for the war had been engineered by the media’s propagation of US and British government lies, that it had got it wrong. The politicians said they had been misled by the CIA. The CIA said it was pressured by the politicians. All that mattered was that many people believed that Saddam Hussein was hiding banned weapons. When none were found, a new pretext for dominating Iraq militarily was trotted out, and acceptance of the pretext was aided by the repetition of more unsubstantiated assertions.

The bootstrap theory of propaganda is at work again, this time in connection with Iran.

Stephen Gowans is a Canadian writer and political activist resident in Ottawa. This article is produced from gowans.wordpress.com.

Ban Deplores Attack On United Nations Helicopter in the DemocraticRepublic of Congo

Ban Deplores Attack On UN Helicopter In DR Congo

Sunday, 29 November 2009, 2:44 pm
Press Release: United Nations
New York, Nov 27 2009 8:10PM

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon has condemned the shooting attack on a United Nations helicopter on Thursday in Dongo in western Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) that left three peacekeepers, a civilian pilot and one member of the Congolese national police wounded.

Personnel with the UN Mission in DRC, known as http://monuc.unmissions.org/MONUC , have been tasked with assisting the Government to protect civilians affected by the violent clashes in the village of Dongo in Equateur province that have displaced tens of thousands of civilians, and left scores of villagers and policemen dead since late October.

“The Secretary-General calls on the Government of the DRC to ensure that the perpetrators of the attack against MONUC are held accountable,” his spokesperson said in a statement.

Mr. Ban also encouraged the Government to take steps to peacefully re solve the issues underlying these clashes, and pledged MONUC’s assistance in this regard.

The fighting, thought to be over disputes based on farming and fishing rights in Dongo, have not only displaced an estimated 14,000 people inside DRC, but have also sent over 38,000 people fleeing into neighbouring Republic of Congo.

Uruguay Holds Runoff Election

Sunday, November 29, 2009
06:48 Mecca time, 03:48 GMT

Uruguay holds runoff election

Opinion polls place Mujica in front of his rival and former president Luis Lacalle

Uruguayans are to vote in a presidential runoff pitting a former guerilla against the ex-president Luis Lacalle.

About 2.5 million people are eligible to vote in Sunday’s polls, triggered when Jose Mujica won about 48 per cent support in October elections.

But Mujica fell short of the majority needed to beat Lacalle, who garnered around 28 per cent.

With polls placing him as the frontrunner, Mujica, 74, is nonetheless viewed with suspicion by some of the country’s conservatives because he was a founder of the Marxist Tupamaros guerilla movement.

The ex-inmate said he styles himself along the political lines of Brazil’s populist president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

“My model is Lula because he uses this model that makes permanent negotiation the center of his policy,” Mujica told Uruguay’s Busqueda weekly.

He was held in prison for 14 years before his release in 1985, when democracy was restored to Uruguay after its 1973-1985 dictatorship.

Colourful candidate

A former agriculture minister between 2005 and 2008, Mujica has cultivated an informal style, largely eschewing suits, and tends to speak in an off-the-cuff manner that delights his supporters.

When centre-right former president Jorge Battle suggested that the Tupamaros movement had links to a recently uncovered weapons cache, Mujica gave a characteristically flamboyant response.

“I’m going to send him a bottle of Viagra so he can amuse himself with more useful things than saying this kind of crap,” said Mujica, who also goes by the nickname “Pepe”.

Despite his colourful pronouncements and background, Mujica’s political platform is far from radical, analysts say.

His running mate is former finance minister Danilo Astori, considered a political pragmatist, and the pair are running on a platform that would maintain the economic policies of Tabare Vazquez, the popular outgoing president.

Vazquez, who is constitutionally prohibited from running for office again, has a 71 per cent approval rating thanks in large part to economic policies that have allowed Uruguay to avoid a recession while keeping unemployment low and even reducing poverty levels from 26 per cent in 2007 to 20.5 per cent in 2008.

Abortion issue

Mujica and Vazquez have traded the most barbs over abortion.

The outgoing president vetoed a law last year that would have decriminalized the procedure, but Mujica has said he would not do the same.

Lacalle, 68, who served as conservative president of Uruguay between 1990 and 1995, is against abortion.

He has also distanced himself from the Vasquez government by pledging to abolish an income tax they imposed.

Despite garnering significantly less of the vote than Mujica in the first round, Lacalle could win over a number of supporters from centre-right candidate Pedro Bordaberry, who was eliminated after garnering just 16 per cent of the October vote.

Lacalle has campaigned in large part on a law and order platform, running advertisements featuring shop surveillance footage from robberies, but his efforts may be in vain, with recent polls showing him at least five points behind Mujica.

Source: Agencies

Honduras Set For Presidential Polls

Sunday, November 29, 2009
04:51 Mecca time, 01:51 GMT

Honduras set for presidential polls

Honduran voters are set to cast their ballots to elect a new president five months after a military coup removed Manuel Zelaya from power, plunging the country into a political crisis.

The interim government said it will ensure security for the elections at all costs, saying that the new ballot will end the leadership stand-off.

Sunday’s vote will pit polls favourite Porfirio “Pepe” Lobo, from the conservative National Party, against Elvin Santos of the Liberal Party and former vice-president under Zelaya.

But Zelaya, who is unable to vote and still inside the Brazilian Embassy in Tegucigalpa where he has been for the past 10 weeks, has been urging supporters to boycott the vote, saying that it will only legitimise the coup.

Lucia Newman, Al Jazeera’s Latin America editor, said that about one-third of the voting population are expected to stay away from the polls either to protest Zelaya’s ouster or for fear of violence.

She said Hondurans wanted economic reconciliation with the world and are hoping that the international community will recognise Sunday’s vote.

She also said the world and especially Latin America was deeply-divided on this issue, between those who say it is unfair to punish the Honduran people for the coup and those who say that recognition would be tantamount to whitewashing the coup and letting the coup members get away with it.

Tensions were high in Honduras as heavily-armed soldiers escorted elections materials to schools and other voting centres on Saturday.

International recognition

Some countries in the region have thrown their support behind Zelaya but the US and more recently Costa Rica have said that they will endorse the result of the elections.

The US State Department said Sunday’s election was a critical step toward restoring democracy in Honduras.

The two leading candidates are also hopeful that the elections will be recognised internationally.

Lobo, a conservative candidate who has a clear lead over his closest rival in recent polls, said the elections were legal and constitutional even though they will follow a coup.

“Even though many countries have said no [that they will not recognise the elections], I have personally spoken to them and they have told me ‘don’t worry, we’ll recognize them, just give us some time’,” he said.

“This will normalise, because in a democracy, to not recognise an electoral process, would be a bit strange.”

His rival Santos said the fate of Zelaya would be determined by the law after following the elections, saying that justice and the coup “will depend on the institutions and the law”.

“I’m a candidate, I don’t represent the state or the government, I’m a candidate who aspires to govern,” he said on the eve of the election.

“I plan to do this as a pact to integrate civil society and define a future that we will build together.”

Honduras has been shut out by foreign donors since the June 28 coup, and Brazil, the US and Europe initially pushed hard for Zelaya’s reinstatement.

Source: Al Jazeera and agencies

Arctic Ice Volume Lowest Ever As Globe Warms: U.N

Ice volume around the Arctic region hit the lowest level ever recorded this year as climate extremes brought death and devastation to many parts of the world, the U.N. weather agency WMO said on Tuesday.

Although the world’s average temperature in 2008 was, at 14.3 degrees Celsius (57.7 degrees Fahrenheit), by a fraction of a degree the coolest so far this century, the direction toward a warmer climate remained steady, it reported.

“What is happening in the Arctic is one of the key indicators of global warming,” Michel Jarraud, Secretary General of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), said. “The overall trend is still upwards.”

A report presented by Jarraud at a news conference showed Arctic ice cover dropping to its second lowest extent during this year’s melt season since satellite measuring began in 1979.

However, the Geneva-based agency said, “because ice was thinner in 2008, overall ice volume was less than in any other year.” It added: “The season strongly reinforced the 30-year downward trend in the extent of Arctic Sea ice.”

Sea ice extent is the primary parameter for summarizing the state of the Arctic sea ice cover. Microwave satellites have routinely and accurately monitored the extent since 1979. There are two periods that define the annual cycle and thus are of particular interest: March, at the end of winter when the ice is at its maximum extent, and September, when it reaches its annual minimum. Maps of ice coverage in March 2009 and September 2009 are presented in the illustrations below, with the magenta line denoting the median ice extent for the period 1979 – 2000.

Figure S1. Sea ice extent in March 2009 (left) and September 2009 (right), illustrating the respective winter maximum and summer minimum extents. [Figures from the National Snow and Ice Data Center Sea Ice Index: nsidc.org/data/ seaice_index.]

The dramatic collapse of a quarter of ancient ice shelves on Canada’s Ellesmere Island in the north of the Arctic Ocean added to earlier meltdowns, reducing cover in the region from 9,000 square km (3,500 sq miles) a century ago to just 1,000 sq kms.

Ellesmere Island was once entirely ringed by a single enormous ice shelf that broke up in the early 1900s. All that is left today are the four much smaller shelves that together cover little more than 299 square miles. The 4,500-year-old Markham Ice Shelf separated in early August and the 19-square-mile shelf is now adrift in the Arctic Ocean. Also, two large sections of ice detached from the Serson Ice Shelf, shrinking that ice feature by 47 square miles _ or 60 percent _ and that the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf has also continued to break up, losing an additional eight square miles.

The WMO said the slight slowdown in warming this year, an increase of 0.31C over the 14C of the base period 1961-90, against an average 0.43C for 2001-2007, was due to a moderate-to-strong La Nina in the Pacific in late 2007. (Left: Ward Ice Shelf - Ellesmere Island)

“This decade is almost 0.2 degrees (Celsius) warmer compared to the previous decade. We have to look at it in that way, comparing decades not years,” related Peter Stott, a climate scientist at Britain’s Hadley Center, which provided data for the WMO report.

LA NINA, EL NINO

The image shows the differences in sea level measured by the Topex\Poseidon altimeter satellite during the 1997 El Niño and 1999 La Niña. From NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

La Nina is a periodic weather pattern that develops when Pacific sea water cools. It alternates irregularly with the related El Nino — when the Pacific warms up — and both affect the climate all round the world.

The WMO report was based on statistics and analyses compiled by weather services among its 188 member countries and specialist research institutions, including government-backed bodies in the United States and Britain.

“Climate extremes, including devastating floods, severe and persistent droughts, snow storms, heat waves and cold waves were recorded in many parts of the world,” the agency said. In many of these, hundreds or even thousands of people died.

Among the disasters was Cyclone Nargis,(left) which killed some 78,000 in Myanmar’s southern delta region in early May. In the western Atlantic and Caribbean there were 16 major tropical storms, eight of which developed into hurricanes.

In an average year, there are 11 storms of which six become hurricanes and two become major hurricanes. In 2008, five major hurricanes developed, and for the first time on record six tropical storms in a row made landfall in the United States.

The WMO says the 10 hottest years since global records were first kept in 1850 have all been since 1997, with the warmest at 14.79 C in 2005. Countries have been struggling for years to reach agreement on how to halt the trend.

This month a two-week meeting of leaders in Poznan, Poland, called to prepare a treaty for late 2009 seemed to falter amid rows between rich and poor nations and what some climate campaigners say was lack of will to get things done.

Source:
Planet Ark, “Arctic Ice Volume Lowest Ever As Globe Warms: U.N“, accessed November 25, 2009
NOAA, “Arctic Report Card 2009“, accessed November 25, 2009

Zimbabwe News Update: Investment Agreement Signed With South Africa

Zim, SA sign investment agreement

By Walter Muchinguri
Zimbabwe Herald

Zimbabwe and South Africa yesterday signed the much-awaited Bilateral Investment Promotion and Protection Agreement that is set to unlock investment inflows into both countries.

Economic Planning and Investment Promotion Minister Elton Mangoma signed the agreement on behalf of Zimbabwe while South Africa’s Trade and Industry Minister, Dr Rob Davies, signed on behalf of his country.

The agreement, which comes after almost five years of negotiations, will now be presented to the parliaments of both countries for ratification before it comes into force.

There had been some attempts by a group of some South African farmers, who had wanted to secure an order to have the signing deferred on the basis that the agreement should include issues on security of tenure on land.

However, Dr Davies said the issue was settled out of court after it was discovered that there was no basis for applying for such an order and that the benefits of signing the Bippa to most of the South African businesses far outweighed the interest of the minority business grouping.

Speaking soon after the signing ceremony, Minister Mangoma paid tribute to all the people who had worked to ensure that the agreement was signed.

“Although the journey started in 2004, it took us nine months as an inclusive Government to have the agreement signed, the same time that it takes a baby to be born. So this is not a premature baby, it is one that has been carried to full term,” the minister said.

Minister Mangoma said the focus was now on increasing trade volumes with South Africa to the levels of 10 years ago as well as looking at new ways of doing business.

He said that although South Africa and Zimbabwe signed the Bippa, the implications of the event were far-reaching and extended beyond the border of the two countries.

“This Bippa is not between us and South Africa only it signals that Zimbabwe is now ready to do business, it is also ready for investment and ready to take its place on the world stage.

“For those who were saying that how can Zimbabwe fail to sign an agreement with South Africa, its neighbour, and when both are in Sadc, this is a demonstration that we are working hard to improve investment inflows into the country,” he said.

The minister said all the three political parties within the inclusive Government were committed to staying in Government.

“All that we are saying to each other is that we have an agreement let’s implement all that we have agreed to in that agreement.

“Will there be squabble? Yes, there will be because this is politics and in business that is what you call noise,” he said.

Dr Davies said South Africa was committed to seeing the implementation of the Global Political Agreement and that the signing of the Bippa was one of the ways in which his country was working to ensure economic recovery in Zimbabwe as spelt out in the GPA.

“Contrary to the belief that this agreement will benefit South Africa alone, it will facilitate a two-way flow of investment into both countries,” he said.

The estimated value of South African businesses operating in Zimbabwe in 2003 was US$619 million while that of Zimbabwean businesses operating in South Africa was US$154 million. He said South Africa was also eager to see Zimbabwe’s economy ticking again as the influx of refugees from the region, including Zimbabwe, was putting pressure in their job market where menial jobs were scarce with South African employers were electing to employ foreigners ahead of locals.

Dr Davies said the signing of the Bippa was important as it provided the security required by investors and that the Industrial Development Corporation and Development Bank of South Africa were ready to come in with money to support various projects in different sectors of the economy.

Deputy Prime Minister Arthur Mutambara said the signing of the agreement was a demonstration of 21st century Pan-Africanism rooted in the economy business and entrepreneurship.

“The prosperity and success of South Africa is not possible without the success of Zimbabwe and Sadc,” he said.

He called on local companies to strive to go beyond their national outlook and assume a region and international identity by partnering other business within the region and abroad to enhance their businesses.

The DPM also called on local businesses and foreign investors not to wait on the sidelines as opportunities unfold.

“If you wait for the political risk to pass, by the time it passes, the economic benefits will have also passed,” he said.

The signing of the Bippa is expected to manifest in various spin-of for both countries chief of which is to enhancing investor confidence by showing that Zimbabwe is a safe and viable investment location as it guarantees the safety of foreign investment.

Since South Africa is also the country’s largest trading partner, the Bippa will enhance economic corporation that will manifest in the increase of the volumes of trade between the two countries.

The signing also paves way for the finalisation of several other agreements between the two countries and other countries that are at different stages.

Fireworks expected at Politburo meeting

Sunday Mail Reporter

A POTENTIALLY explosive Zanu-PF Politburo meeting is scheduled for Wednesday this week with the party’s Manicaland Province claiming that the process to nominate the national chairman of the party was not done procedurally and should be revisited.

The province is claiming that there was a “misconception” in some provinces that the national chairman was supposed to come from Matabeleland and, as a result, Zimbabwe’s Ambassador to South Africa, Cde Simon Khaya Moyo, was nominated by most provinces for the post.

The special Politburo meeting will also finalise the dates of the much-awaited national congress to be held in Harare.

Zanu-PF’s Secretary for Administration, Cde Didymus Mutasa, yesterday confirmed that the Politburo would meet on Wednesday to finalise the congress dates as well as discuss other issues including the nomination of the party’s national chairman.

“I can confirm that the dates had been provisionally set for the 16th to the 20th but the Politburo will meet on Wednesday and make the final decision. Preparations for the congress have gone on well to date and without any hitches.

“Everything is going according to plan. We are all gearing up for the congress, which we hope will be a successful one and will usher in a new Presidium and Central Committee members,” he said.

However, Cde Mutasa revealed that Manicaland Province wanted to engage the Politburo over the nomination process for the party chairmanship.

He said the nomination of party chairman was not done properly because some provinces held the misconception that the party chairman should originate from the Matabeleland Provinces.

“There is no written law in the party which states that the party chairman should come from the Matabeleland Provinces.

Manicaland Province therefore feels that the nomination for the chairmanship was not done properly. On the nomination date, some provinces altered and delayed their nominations and we feel that this was unfair,” he said.

Manicaland Province had nominated Cde Mutasa for the post of national chairman while Mashonaland Central had done the same before backtracking to throw its weight behind Cde Khaya Moyo.

Cde Mutasa said the Politburo would also discuss whether Cde Khaya Moyo would continue in his present role as Ambassador to South Africa in the event that he was confirmed as the party’s national chairman.

“The Politburo will look at whether Cde Khaya Moyo will continue to intertwine his new role with his diplomatic post. The nominated chairman is likely to attend the meeting and that is one of the issues we will discuss,” he said.

Cde Mutasa also explained that the battle for the nominations had not created any disunity but had proven that democracy existed within Zanu-PF.

“There is democracy in Zanu-PF and it is immature to say that the nominations created any divisions. There can be disagreements here and there but it is these disagreements that show that members have the freedom to express their concerns,” he said.

All provinces unanimously endorsed Cde Robert Mugabe as President and First Secretary of the party while Cdes Joice Mujuru and John Nkomo were nominated by the majority of the provinces for the two Vice Presidential posts. Cde Khaya Moyo was nominated by the majority of the provinces to serve as party chairman.

Meanwhile, most provinces have since completed their nominations for Central Committee members.

3 die, 4 injured as Zim plane crashes

Sunday Mail Reporter

THREE crew members died instantly and four others were injured when a Zimbabwean-registered cargo plane crashed as it took off at the main airport in Shanghai, China, yesterday morning.

The plane belongs to Harare-based Avient Aviation and was heading for Bishkek, the capital of the former Soviet state of Kyrgyzstan in central Asia.

All the three who died are United States citizens while a Zimbabwean was among the injured.

Reports last night indicated that the Zimbabwean, whose identity is still being withheld, was in stable condition. The other three injured are from Belgium, Indonesia and the US. The cause of the crash was not immediately established.

An official with Avient Aviation yesterday confirmed that the plane, a US-made McDonnell- Douglas MD11 freighter, crashed as it took off from Pudong International Airport in the Chinese commercial capital.

“The accident took place today (yesterday) in the morning and we have not yet established what caused it.

“After the crash, three American crew members were reported dead and there were four people who sustained injuries,” said the official at the company’s headquarters in Borrowdale, Harare.

“Those who were injured are from the United States, Belgium, Indonesia and Zimbabwe,” she added.

“At the moment, we are withholding the name of the Zimbabwean involved but I have been assured that he is now in a stable condition.”

The official said that they were now getting assistance from the Civil Aviation Authority of Zimbabwe (CAAZ) to determine what could have caused the accident.

“We have met officials from CAAZ so that they assist us in carrying out investigations on what caused the accident.

“Our senior management is on their way to China to also determine what caused the crash and also to meet with those involved in the crash,” said the official.

She said this was the first time that one of their aircraft had been involved in an accident.

Avient Aviation is based in the country and has been specialising in air cargo services since 1993.

According to a Press statement later published on the company’s website, the accident took place at approximately 00:16 GMT.

“An Avient Aviation-operated aircraft was involved in an accident at approximately 00:16 GMT today while the aircraft, a McDonnell-Douglas MD11 freighter, was operating a charter freight flight from Pudong International Airport in China. The aircraft was carrying a crew of seven.

“At this time, the full resources of Avient’s accident response team have been mobilised and will be devoted to co-operating with all authorities responding to the accident,” reads part of the statement.

Recent crashes in China include two Chinese air force jets that collided in June 2008 in Inner Mongolia, with both pilots parachuting to safety. In June 2006, a Chinese military plane crashed in eastern Anhui province, killing all 40 people on board.

Government committed to gender equality

Sunday Mail Reporter

THE Deputy Minister of Women’s Affairs, Gender and Community Development, Mrs Evelyn Masaiti, says Government is committed to ensuring gender equality in the country.

Officially opening the Zimbabwe Women’s Resource Centre and Network (ZWRCN) Annual Stakeholders’ Workshop in Kadoma last week, she said the ratification of the Sadc Protocol on Gender and Development was ample evidence of the steps authorities were making in this direction.

She said gender equality was important as studies have shown that initiatives tailor-made to economically empower women lead to higher rates of economic growth.

“Gender budgeting is a tool used to ensure that Government budgets, policies and programmes address the needs and interests of different social groups,” she said.

“The goal of the programme is not only in itself the achievement of gender equality but also for increased economic growth and development. Therefore, as we seek ways of economic rehabilitation and national development, gender responsive budgeting has become more crucial.”

The deputy minister commended efforts by the Office of the President and Cabinet, the Ministry of Finance and her ministry to respond positively to gender-related issues.

The workshop drew various participants among them, parliamentary representatives.

Why I back indigenisation

By Jonathan Kadzura
Zimbabwe Sunday Mail

IN his wisdom, President Mugabe created a ministry to oversee and ensure that the local previously disadvantaged people take advantage of their local economy.

The ministry, in my view, was created to ensure that many youths take advantage of their God-given resources to better their livelihoods.

The ministry, to its credit, crafted what is now law on indigenisation. In their wisdom the ministry registered a number of pressure groups to accelerate economic indigenisation in Zimbabwe.

We now have the Indigenous Business Women Organisation of Zimbabwe, the Indigenous Business Community, and a few other pressure groups.

We also have the Small Miners’ Association that overlooks the local mining interests of the small-scale mining members.

It would appear to me that Government has over the years demonstrated its will and indeed ability to ensure that the previously disadvantaged indigenous people of Zimbabwe are given the opportunity to now rise and shine. But are they?

Let us agree on certain things, President Mugabe can never come and tell me to individually wake up and go out there to enrich myself and my people.

The President can never come and work on my fields, neither can he ever tell me or whisper in my ears about the opportunities arising in our economy. All he can do is to ensure that the economic playing field is level and square to all. This the President has done.

I have a huge doubt about the Ministry of Youth Development, Indigenisation and Empowerment and the various indigenisation pressure groups we have in Zimbabwe.

I have problems with these instruments. Are these instruments for the youth of this country or for those who run and manage them?

I am well over 30 years old, so that by Zanu-PF definition, I am not a youth anymore.

After we are all gone there will still be a Zimbabwe. Are we managing to create the Zimbabwe we need? I should shudder to imagine.

It is late at night, I shudder to sleep because I am afraid to dream of our future if we do not indigenise now.

President Mugabe has fought all his life, to make you and I a better entity, but surely he has been let down. As Zimbabweans, we should be determined to ensure that this vision is achieved sooner rather than later. Politics is about serving the people.

Sadly most of those who have surrounded the President have found it fit to serve themselves first before empowering the people. That is not politics; it is selfishness. Selfishness has the tendency to curl and strike itself.

I have listened enough times to the young people who tell me now and again that they have been chased out of their little shops because rents were hiked or Zesa bills have become unaffordable.

As a result, most shops have now been sub-divided into little holes in order to accommodate more traders who can afford high rentals.

I have not heard a whisper from all these pressure groups or the Ministry of Indigenisation, about suggested solutions to these local hardships.

President Mugabe led the way by putting the Indigenisation Act in place, and now we must also ask him to evict a foreigner from our own building. RUBBISH. In my view, retail business under US$500 million worth of investment must be left to the indigenous people of Zimbabwe.

For all those foreigners, who would like to get involved in retail, in my view, they should be given land to develop. The piece of land will be theirs, the building will be theirs, but at the end of it all, they will have added real value to our economy.

When they choose to go they may, if they wish, sell the property or lease it. The net winner in this case will be Zimbabwe because of the added value on the land.

Surely, we do not need investors who come here to just sell sugar and Mazoe. For clarity, indigenous Zimbabweans must be given the right to all retail business under US$500 million investment.

All those who would like to get involved in retail, in my view, should be given land to develop.

The President has done it all for us, but we need the easy way out. The easy way out is recolonisation. Already that path is set and some of us are already treading on it. Ask me, I will tell you.

In my view, all those elbowed out of their businesses because of high rentals and high electricity bills must, as a matter of urgency, demand a hearing with the ministers responsible.

The President, in my view, is clear about the indigenisation theory, not as a slogan but a reality.

I would like to hear from the ministry and the pressure groups about their response to the ordinary traders who are now forced to the Mupedzanhamos because they cannot afford the town rentals anymore or perhaps forced to trade from a small upstairs shop where there is no passing trade because some foreign person who can afford high rentals has come to take over the passing trade.

As usual, I am just opening a public debate on rentals, nature of investments and the role of the Ministry of Indigenisation and the various pressure organisations we have in Zimbabwe.

Are these instruments proactive or reactive only when something triggers them to be heard? I deserve a reply, and detailed action plan on indigenisation.

I am aware of the ongoing plan to have 51 percent localised investment in all foreign corporates. I support the view, but that will not create new wealth or new employment but simply create a probable new class of Western capital parasites that can tomorrow grow to help recolonisation.

We must be wary of the Ides of March. Already, enough has been witnessed about who is or are there as the indigenous people of this great Zimbabwe.

Whatever methodology finally comes out must favour the poor and not the rich.

Again, it is a Sunday, time for the family. Enjoy yours as I enjoy mine.

Rwanda Joins British Commonwealth

November 29, 2009

Rwanda Joins British Commonwealth

By JOSH KRON
New York Times

The republic of Rwanda was admitted to the British Commonwealth on Saturday, becoming the 54th nation to join the post-colonial group.

The Commonwealth members’ summit meeting, held in the Caribbean island-state of Trinidad & Tobago, admitted the Central African country after it applied for membership in 2008.

“The government sees this accession as recognition of the tremendous progress this country has made in the last 15 years,” Rwanda’s government spokesperson, Louise Mushikiwabo, said in the capital, Kigali.

Diplomats also see the country’s accession as a promising step in its political development under President Paul Kagame after the 1994 genocide.

Rwanda’s application, which made it, along with Mozambique, the second nation without any formal historical ties to Great Britain to join the group, initially came under scrutiny because of criticism of its human rights record.

Rwanda was first colonized by Germany in the late 19th century and then by the Belgians. The country later held close ties to France, which were severed after the 1994 Rwandan genocide.