This was a huge step on from our work in Kyoto

John Prescott
guardian.co.uk, Saturday 19 December 2009 21.00 GMT
I came home from Copenhagen and picked up the newspapers. The headlines read: “Talks end in failure”; “Deadlock”; “Copenhagen fails the test”.
The “test” for many journalists and NGOs was whether there’d be a legal agreement, which was never a possibility, just as we didn’t get one at Kyoto. No. The real headline is that Copenhagen has become the first global agreement on climate change. The Copenhagen accord reaffirms the science that we shouldn’t allow the temperature to rise more than two degrees, establishes a green climate fund providing $30bn from 1 January and a new form of verification.
This isn’t failure. It’s not as good as it should have been but as Ban Ki-moon said, it’s another important step to control climate change.
And it’s certainly not “genocide” as the Sudanese delegate said. Perhaps he should try to tackle genocide at home first before preaching to the rest of world.
My five days at Copenhagen reminded me so much of Kyoto. In 1997, when I was negotiating for the EU, I coined a phrase. When journalists followed me between meetings trying to get updates, I’d say: “I’m walking and talking.” Twelve years on in Copenhagen and I’ve been doing the same, this time for the Council of Europe as its rapporteur on climate change. We’ve been calling for a fairer deal for developing nations based on social justice. China may be becoming the world’s biggest emitter, but if you look at CO² emissions per person, each American emits 20 tonnes a year, a Chinese person just six and an African less than one.
When I launched the Council of Europe’s New Earth Deal campaign, which rejected the EU’s limited proposals, I predicted three things. First, there wouldn’t be a legally binding agreement. That will come later. Second, that Copenhagen would be 10 times more difficult than Kyoto. In 1997, we were trying to find agreement among 47 developed countries. Copenhagen needed consensus from 192. And finally, the deal would come down to the G2 – China and the US. It’s at the conference when you really get that chance to press home the message. I lobbied John Kerry, Al Gore and the Chinese environment minister Xie Zhenhua, telling them they had to “wriggle more” to get a deal. The translator fell silent, but when I mimed a wriggle to Xie, he smiled and understood what I meant.
But the atmosphere was soured by the US, first by its climate change special envoy, Todd Stern, who said emissions “isn’t a matter of politics or morality or anything else, it’s just maths”, which completely ignored the per capita argument. President Obama’s speech blaming China didn’t help either.
The US has pushed the Chinese hard on emissions cuts. Fine when you’ve had your industrial revolution. But China and the other developing countries need that growth. Understandable when more than half of the planet is living on less than $2 a day.
But one world leader stands out for me. Gordon Brown, who made a brilliant speech, has shown once again real leadership in finding global solutions to global problems, just as he did at the G20 on finance. He was the first leader to commit to go to Copenhagen, successfully lobbied for others to join him and got the fast-track fund off the ground. Yet again, he’s proved he’s a big man for a big job. So let’s keep walking and talking to the UN climate talks in Bonn in May and the next COP in Mexico in December. That’s when the fine detail will be hammered out, just like we did after Kyoto.
• John Prescott is the Council of Europe’s rapporteur on climate change

Colombia Building Military Base on Border With Venezuela

Colombia beefs up border forces

The Colombian government has announced it is building a new military base on its border with Venezuela and has activated six new airborne battalions.

Relations between the two nations are at a historic low with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez already telling his generals to prepare for war.

He moved 15,000 more troops up to the border, accusing Colombia and its ally, the US, of planning an attack.

A BBC correspondent says the potential for conflict is heightened.

Colombian Defence Minister Gabriel Silva announced the formation of a new base in La Guajira in the north, near the Venezuelan border.

At the same time, the Colombian army activated the new airborne battalions, which are equipped with US helicopters.

The helicopter fleet, made up mainly of Blackhawks, now numbers 120, making the Colombian Army Air Corps the best equipped and most experienced in Latin America, the BBC’s Jeremy McDermott in Colombia says.

Preparing for war

President Chavez has criticised a pact announced last month allowing US troops to use several bases in Colombia.

Mr Silva said that the new base would have up to 1,000 soldiers.

It would, he added, also have a care facility for indigenous Wayuu people who live in the area.

Since Venezuelans were told by Mr Chavez to prepare for war and the Venezuelan army starting blowing up bridges that link the two nations, Colombia has been overhauling its defence strategy.

Until now this strategy has been geared almost exclusively to fighting the country’s 45-year Marxist insurgency.

With the increasing build-up of military on both sides of the border, the potential for conflict is heightened, particularly when one considers 2,000 rebels in the border region prepared for a fight between the two nations, our correspondent says.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/americas/8423029.stm
Published: 2009/12/20 04:26:58 GMT

The ship with holes and a sail – to save fuel

Tough emissions rules and industry overcapacity are prompting bold innovations
Danny Fortson

It may sound bizarre, but a plan to save the shipping industry involves poking big holes through the bottom of every cargo ship and tanker in the world’s 80,000-strong commercial fleet.
Jorn Winkler and his company, Rotterdam-based DK Group, have already tried it out on one vessel, with interesting results. The idea is to shoot compressed air through cavities bored into ship hulls. The trial vessel didn’t sink — quite the opposite: the airflow created a buffer of bubbles to reduce drag and, crucially, cut fuel consumption by 10%.
Winkler, DK’s founder and executive vice-president, is a former pilot and so understands aerodynamics. He has been working on the technology for a decade, but it is only recently that the industry has started to pay attention.
“Shipowners have been reluctant for a long time to embrace technology,” he said. “Now they’re realising they need it. Otherwise they’re all going to go bankrupt.”

The shipping industry, which delivers 90% of the world’s traded goods, is in trouble. Thanks to the recession, traffic flows and freight rates have plunged in the past year. At the same time, an unprecedented wave of new ships, ordered at the height of the boom, is about to flood the market. An even bigger problem looms: a global move to police the industry’s carbon emissions.
Shipping is the only industry apart from aviation that has not yet been ensnared by regulations limiting and fining polluters. It has accepted, grudgingly, that this will soon end. What form the new regime will take was debated at the climate change talks in Copenhagen. No deal was reached, but many eventually expect there will be a tax on bunker fuel, the sulphuric leftovers from petrol refining that power the world’s fleets. That could add $25 billion (£15.5 billion), by some estimates, to the industry’s yearly running costs.
That, combined with the already dire financial straits of large parts of the industry, has stoked an urgent search to cut emissions and fuel bills. A growing number of companies are coming up with offers, from aerodynamic paint and rubberised propellers to Winkler’s air-cavity system.
“Ship design hasn’t changed since the industry was moved to Asia 30 years ago,” Winkler said. “The only way out for the industry now is efficiency.”
Reliable figures on the carbon output of shipping are elusive. The International Maritime Organisation, the UN agency that oversees the industry, estimated in a report two years ago that it accounts for 2.7% of global emissions. Icap, one of the largest shipbrokers, argues that the total is more like 4%. “Despite all approximations, the consensus is that the figures are already exceeding a billion tonnes a year and can only rise from here,” it said in a recent report.
What is certain is that shipping’s slice of the pollution pie is already significant, is getting bigger, and will inevitably face regulation in the near future. Every day about 7.5m barrels of oil is burned by cargo ships, tankers and dry-bulk carriers — about 9% of global consumption.
According to Clarkson, the shipping services group, within the next two-and-a-half years the global fleet will increase by 40%, a rise never before seen in the industry. Yet the monster tankers and cargo vessels now being churned out of the shipyards of South Korea and China are not very different from those built decades ago. Martin Stopford, head of research at Clarksons, said: “The last real wave of innovation was in the 1950s and 1960s.”
The situation has opened a window of opportunity for new technologies — such as giant kites. SkySails, a small firm based in Hamburg, will next year begin production of computer controlled kites that can be fitted to the bow of a ship. With a 300-metre tether, a kite can capture stronger winds than those close to the sea’s surface.
SkySails boss Stephan Wrage said in the right conditions they can cut fuel use by 35%. It is early days, though. So far the loss-making firm has sold “about a dozen” and needs cash to go into volume production.
Even so, ideas like Wrage’s are gaining pace. Japan’s Ocean Policy Research Foundation predicts that by 2050 more than half the world fleet will be carbon-free. It envisages solar panels, fuel cells, wind power and other measures all working together.
For now, however, most owners are concentrating on incremental measures. Researchers are experimenting with slicker paint, for example, that can lop 10% off the fuel bill by reducing friction.
Maersk, the Dutch shipping giant, found that by cutting its speed by 1.5 knots a container ship from Barcelona to Los Angeles reduces its carbon output 16%. It has also pioneered the use of seawater to keep goods on board frozen rather than using conventional power-hungry refrigeration units. Nils Andersen, chief executive, has pledged to cut emissions across its fleet 20% by 2017.
Like past innovations, the flurry of activity is being driven by economic necessity. Some parts of the sector such as container shipping, which rely directly on consumer spending, are in “full recession”, Stopford said. “There is a lot of new tonnage arriving at an inconvenient time. The low rates mean that many shipowners are making just enough to meet running costs,” he said.
For some, the reversal of fortune has been spectacular. In the summer of 2008 bulk carriers, which deliver commodities such as wheat and coal, were charging $300,000 a day. By November rates had collapsed to just $2,000 a day.
While rates have recovered, to between $40,000 and $50,000, market experts expect the deluge of new ships to mute the recovery. “We’ll have 60% overcapacity for the next five years. That’s bad for pricing,” said one company executive. “We need to bring down our fuel consumption.”
Meanwhile, there is also a public relations fight to be won. For decades the industry has enjoyed its anonymity, toiling away deep in the machine room of the global economy. In the past couple of years, though, the climate change debate has dragged it into the harsh light of day. Not long ago it was a rarity for people to consider the carbon impact of the trainers on their feet or the television set in their living rooms. Increasingly, they do.
The similarities between shipping and aviation are many. Both industries have launched big public relations drives in the past few years as environmental awareness has intensified.
Shipowners rightly point out that they emit less than 2% of the pollution that would be generated if the same goods were sent by air. The aviation industry, in return, points to shipping’s less than stellar track record of spills and the releasing of harmful chemicals into the oceans — ships dump vast amounts of sulfur dioxide, a known carcinogen.
The mud-slinging is part of the negotiations. At Copenhagen at least eight proposals to regulate emissions were tabled — from plans to include shipping, like aviation, in Europe’s carbon-trading scheme from 2012, to a straight bunker-fuel levy that would then be used to fund carbon-cutting projects elsewhere.
Shipping lobbyists are pushing for a global deal because the global nature of the business means that any regional schemes would simply push shipowners to operate from less regulated countries. Wrage said: “The most important thing for us is that clear targets are set and a price is put on carbon at Copenhagen. If they don’t get a result, it’s bad for all of us.”
In the meantime, ideas large and small are germinating. “We are servants of global trade,” said Simon Bennett of the International Shipping Federation, the London-based trade group. “Imposing caps on our emission would effectively be putting a brake on economic growth.”

IUCN names Species on climate change hit list

The Arctic Fox, Leatherback Turtle and Koala are among the species destined to be hardest hit by climate change, according to a new IUCN review.

The report, Species and Climate Change, focuses on 10 species, including the Beluga Whale, Clownfish, Emperor Penguin, Quiver Tree, Ringed Seal, salmon and staghorn corals, which all highlight the way climate change is adversely affecting marine, terrestrial and freshwater habitats.

“Humans are not the only ones whose fate is at stake here in Copenhagen – some of our favourite species are also taking the fall for our CO2 emissions,” says report co-author Wendy Foden. “This report should act as a wake-up call to governments to make real commitments to cut CO2 emissions if we are to avoid a drastically changed natural world. We simply don’t have the time for drawn-out political wrangling. We need strong commitments and we need them now.”

Polar species are being affected by loss of ice due to global warming, according to the report. The Ringed Seal is being forced further north as the sea ice it relies on for pup-rearing retreats. The Emperor Penguin, highly adapted to unforgiving Antarctic conditions, faces a similar problem. Regional sea ice, which it needs for mating, chick-rearing and moulting, is declining. Reduced ice cover also means less krill, affecting food availability for the Emperor Penguin and many other Antarctic species.

The Arctic tundra on which the Arctic Fox depends is disappearing as warming temperatures allow new plant species to flourish. As the habitat changes from tundra to forest, the Red Fox, which preys on the Arctic Fox and competes with it for food, is able to move further north, reducing the Arctic Fox’s territory.

The Arctic’s Beluga Whale is likely to be affected by global warming both directly, through loss of sea ice and subsequent difficulty finding prey, and indirectly, through human activity as melting sea ice opens up previously inaccessible areas. Ship strikes, pollution and gas and oil exploration all put this highly sociable mammal at risk.

“Ordinary people are not powerless to stop these tragic losses,” says Simon Stuart, Chair of IUCN’s Species Survival Commission.“They can cut down on their own CO2 emissions and voice their support for strong action by their Governments to change the dire climate prognosis we are currently facing.”

The impacts of climate change are not confined to polar regions. In more tropical areas, staghorn corals, which include some 160 species, are severely affected by rising ocean temperatures, which causes coral bleaching. Ocean acidification, the result of too much CO2 in the oceans, weakens the corals’ skeletons.

Clownfish, of “Finding Nemo” fame, are also victims of ocean acidification. Acidic water disrupts their sense of smell, impairing their ability to find their specific host anemone, which they rely on for protection.

Salmon, worth hundreds of millions of dollars to the commercial fishing industry, are threatened by increases in water temperature, which reduces water’s oxygen levels, increases their susceptibility to disease and disrupts their breeding efforts.

Australia’s iconic Koala faces malnutrition and ultimate starvation as the nutritional quality of Eucalyptus leaves declines as CO2 levels increase.

The Leatherback Turtle, another iconic species, is being affected by rising sea levels and increased storm activity due to climate change which destroys its nesting habitats. Temperature increases may lead to a reduction in the proportion of males relative to females.

An increase in CO2 levels does not just affect animals however; it also impacts on the world’s plants. The Quiver Tree (right), found in the Namib Desert region of southern Africa, is losing populations in the equator-ward parts of their distribution range due to drought stress. They highlight the problems that all plants and slow-moving species face in keeping up with rapidly accelerating changing climate.

“Several of the species highlighted in the report are already listed as threatened on the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species, due to other threats such as habitat destruction or over harvesting,” says Jean-Christophe Vié, Deputy Head of IUCN’s Species Program.“Others are not currently threatened on the IUCN Red List, but will be very soon as the effects of climate change materialise. For a large portion of biodiversity, climate change is an additional and major threat.”

To read the full report, please click here.

Source:
IUCN, “Species on climate change hit list named“, accessed December 16, 2009

Nigerian Militants Attack Oil Pipeline Breaking Truce With FederalGovernment

Sunday, December 20, 2009

Niger Delta Crisis: MEND Resumes Attacks

Tompolo’s Group Not Involved, Says Spokesman

JTF Unable To Confirm Action

From Kelvin Ebiri (Port Harcourt) and Hendrix Oliomogbe (Asaba)
Nigerian Guardian

CITING delayed negotiations with government, due to President Yar’Adua’s absence, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND) yesterday breached its 56-day ceasefire by attacking a major Shell/Chevron crude pipeline in Abonemma, Rivers State.

The attack is coming on the heels of MEND’s complaints that President Yar’Adua’s over three weeks absence from the country has stalled the ongoing talks between the government and the group’s appointed negotiators, the Aaron Team.

The group’s spokesperson, Jomo Gbomo, described the attack, which was launched at about 2am, as a warning strike.

He said five boats involving 35 of MEND’s fighters armed with assault rifles, rocket launchers and heavy calibre machine guns, carried out the attack.

The Guardian could not independently confirm the MEND’s attack.

A faction of the armed group loyal to repentant militant leader, Government ‘Tompolo’ Ekpemupolo, said its commanders were not aware of any attacks on oil installations.

In an online statement, Captain Mack Anthony, the spokesman to both ‘Tompolo’ and his (Anthony’s) boss, Togo, said that the group had no hand in the reported attack.

MEND, he insisted, had not decided on any joint attacks in any of the Niger Delta States.

“Although we have our own grievances over how we were treated since we surrendered arms, if there is an attack somewhere, our General Commander, Government ‘Tompolo’ Ekpemupolo and my boss, Togo, are not aware,” he said.

“But don’t forget; there could be some pockets of misunderstanding resulting from communal differences against oil companies in the Niger Delta.

“The amnesty is not instrument of continued suppression by soldiers and multi-nationals. MEND is standing by the conditions of the peace deal,” he stressed.

Tompolo had embraced Federal Government’s amnesty programme, which the mainstream MEND scoffed at as doomed to fail.

Contacted, the Commander of the Joint Task Force (JTF) (Operation Restore Hope), General Sarki-Yarki Bello, said in an SMS that there was “no confirmation yet.”

Similarly, spokesman of the JTF, Lt. Col. Timothy Antigha, explained that they were yet to verify any attack as alleged by MEND.

According to him: “There is no verification yet by the JTF that a pipeline has been sabotaged around Abonnema.

“If this unpatriotic act is confirmed to be true, at a time the Federal Government is doing its utmost to consolidate on the gains of the amnesty programme, then the criminals behind the act are enemies of the Niger Delta and, indeed, Nigeria; and they don’t deserve any sympathy.”

Shell spokesperson, Mr. Precious Okolobo, in an SMS, said: “We don’t have reports of our facility being attacked, and cannot comment.”

He had earlier told The Guardian on telephone that he did not have details of what might have actually transpired, promising that, “if I confirm, I will get back to you.”

An official of Chevron said he had not been able to ascertain the true situation since he was in Houston, United States.

Why We Struck, By Gbomo Jomo

From Kelvin Ebiri (Port Harcourt)

MEND’S mouthpiece, Jomo Gbomo gave reasons why the attack on Shell/Chevron pipelines was carried out yesterday in Abonemma in Rivers State.

According to him, the Federal Government had conveniently tied the advancement of talks on the demands of MEND to President Yar’Adua, who is currently receiving medical attention in far away Saudi Arabia.

However, he noted that the same government “has not tied the repair of pipelines, exploitation of oil and gas as well as the deployment and re-tooling of troops under the aegis of the Joint Task Force (JTF) in the region to the President’s ill health.”

Gbomo said: “While wishing the President a speedy recovery, a situation where the future of the Niger Delta is tied to the health and well being of one man is unacceptable.”

MEND accused the government, through the Bayelsa State governor, Timipre Sylva, the Ministers of Defence, Gen. Godwin Abbe (Rtd) and Ministry of Information and Communications, Prof. Dora Akunyili of disseminating propaganda aimed at foreign investors, claiming that the situation in the Niger Delta is under control.

This assertion, according to him, is far from the truth.

Gbomo also accused the government of offering bribes to a number of militants, who surrendered their weapons under its amnesty programme in the form of contracts.

He said while the government perceives these individuals to wield some kind of influence in the region, MEND wants to make it abundantly clear that all those who had capitulated were of no significance to the continuation of the struggle.

According to him: “MEND is committed to continue its fight for the restoration of the land and rights of the people of the Niger Delta, which has been stolen for 50 years.”

Jomo added that while MEND remains open to dialogue, “the indefinite ceasefire ordered by the group on Sunday, October 25, 2009 will be reviewed within 30 days from today, December 19, 2009.”

MEND had last week told The Guardian in an online interview that the absence of the President had made it impossible for the Aaron Team to meet with the government after the first exploratory meeting last month.

He said: “At this point in time, the fragile peace process is hanging on to the thin thread of a ceasefire. Our demands have not been addressed because there is dialogue ongoing.

“We expect that when the President returns or if we find ourselves with another President, the process must continue with the current tempo and enthusiasm or else peace talks may collapse and the unrest will resume.”

Nigeria militants in oil attack

Armed men in the Niger delta of Nigeria say they have attacked an oil pipeline overnight, putting a two-month truce with the government in doubt.

A faction of the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta said it attacked the pipeline.

A spokesman said it was because the government was delaying peace talks due to the absence of ill President Umaru Yar’Adua, who is in Saudi Arabia.

Attacks have cost Nigeria millions in lost revenue over the years.

The faction said, in an e-mailed statement, that the “warning strike” was carried out by 35 men on five boats with assault rifles, rocket launchers and heavy-calibre machine guns.

It said the pipeline was in Abonemma, about 50km (30 miles) west of Port Harcourt.

Nigeria’s military has not commented on the attack.

Peace talks were suspended when President Yar’Adua was hospitalised in late November in Saudi Arabia.

Mend said it would review the ceasefire within 30 days.

“While the Nigerian government has conveniently tied the advancement of talks on the demands of this group to a sick president, it has not tied the repair of pipelines, exploitation of oil and gas as well as the deployment and re-tooling of troops in the region to the president’s ill health,” it said.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/africa/8422165.stm
Published: 2009/12/19 10:53:44 GMT

Nigeria in crisis as delta militants claim ‘warning attack’ on pipeline

Militants say President Umaru Yar’Adua’s absence in Saudi Arabia is being used to delay oil wealth reforms

Claims by Nigerian militants that they staged an attack on an oil installation, breaching a five-month ceasefire, have deepened fears that the country is on the verge of a constitutional crisis.

Nigeria, which in 1999 ended a 40-year era of military dictatorship, is in the midst of a power vacuum in the absence of President Umaru Yar’Adua, who has been in hospital in Saudi Arabia for more than three weeks.

The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (Mend) claimed that its fighters, armed with rocket launchers and machine-guns, had carried out a “warning strike” against a pipeline at Abonemma in Rivers state. There was no independent confirmation of the attack. Mend said it struck because the government was using Yar’Adua’s absence to stall negotiations promised as part of an amnesty programme. The group said it would review an indefinite ceasefire it offered on 25 October.

The densely populated Niger delta has been the scene of conflict for 20 years, amid calls from its ethnic groups for a greater share of vast oil earnings. The most celebrated victim of the government’s clampdown against the minorities was author Ken Saro-Wiwa, who was executed with eight other Ogoni activists in 1995.

If confirmed, Friday night’s attack would be a major blow to peace efforts by Yar’Adua’s administration, which in July pledged to spend millions of pounds developing the region and offered host communities a 10% share in all oil and gas operations.

The proposal convinced thousands of activists to accept a presidential amnesty, which ended in October. But the plan is politically unpopular and has raised eyebrows among oil multinationals because it demands a huge programme of reform and a major audit of the delta’s oil wealth.

Nevertheless, multinationals admit that, since the amnesty offer and ceasefire, production had increased. Mend attacks over the past three years have prevented Nigeria from extracting more than two thirds of its capacity.

A Mend statement yesterday suggested that the group believed the government was using the president’s illness as a stalling tactic. “While the government has conveniently tied the advancement of talks on the demands of this group to a sick president, it has not tied the repair of pipelines, exploitation of oil and gas, as well as the deployment and retooling of troops in the region to the president’s health,” it said in a statement to news agencies. “A situation where the future of the Niger delta is tied to the health and wellbeing of one man is unacceptable.”

Yar’Adua, 58, is receiving treatment for a heart complaint and has failed to formally hand power to vice-president Goodluck Jonathan. Speculation is rife in the capital, Abuja, that a power struggle has begun in the ruling People’s Democratic party or that junior officers could be planning a move.

Nigeria’s fragile power balance has traditionally depended on rotating presidencies between the Muslim north and the south. Jonathan, a Christian from Rivers state in the south, is seen by analysts as an unacceptable choice in the eyes of the northern elite from which Yar’Adua comes.

Swine Flu Kills 10,000 Worldwide

Swine flu kills 10 000

AFP–GENEVA. — The number of swine flu deaths worldwide passed the 10 000 mark about eight months after the pandemic strain was uncovered in April, reaching 10 582, World Health Organisation data showed yesterday.

“As of 13 December 2009, worldwide more than 208 countries and overseas territories or communities have reported laboratory confirmed cases of pandemic influenza H1N1 2009, including at least 10 582 deaths,” the WHO said.

In data for December 6 released a week ago, the death toll stood at 9 596.

Transmission of the A(H1N1) virus remains “active and geographically widepread” in the northern hemisphere but disease activity has reached a peak or is waning in many locations there, the UN health agency added.

Leader of the Revolution, AU Chairman, Receives President AbdoulayeWade of Senegal

Leader of the Revolution, AU Chairman, receives President Abdoulaye Wade of Senegal

Tripoli, 19.12.2009 (JANA) Leader of the Revolution, Chairman of the African Union, Chairman of the CEN-SAD Community, received Saturday afternoon President Abdoulaye Wade of the Republic of Senegal, member of the Conference of Heads of State and Government of the CEN-SAD Community, and his accompanying delegation.

The leader and President Wade held a meeting where President Wade presented a detailed report on the Climate Change Summit in Copenhagen and the African position in this conference, and the evasiveness of Western countries to commit to reducing greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming, and the false promises that had no outcome.

They touched on clean energies during the meeting, where President Wade presented his recommendations regarding alternative energy.

The leader and President Wade continued discussions and consultations on these issues over a luncheon hosted by the leader in honor of President Wade.

President in the luncheon were the Secretary of the GPC for Foreign Liaison and International Cooperation, the Secretary General of the CEN-SAD Community, the Secretary of the Libyan People’s Bureau in Senegal and Senegalese ambassador to Great Jamahiriya.

New Copenhagen Accord a Sham

New Copenhagen accord ‘a sham’

YOLANDI GROENEWALD | COPENHAGEN, DENMARK - Dec 19 2009 09:46

The new Copenhagen accord, hammered out late on Friday night, is a sham — leading climate change observers said. South Africa took centre stage in the accord as one of five countries to broker it, together with the US.

The European Union has also accepted the accord.

But the accord split nations in the last plenary, which was still going strong on Saturday morning. Many nations was hesitant to sign the deal, and there was a lot of bitterness from Venezuela, many African delegations and the small island states lead by the sad voice of Tuvula.

The accord was negotiated between South Africa, China, India, Brazil and the US in a day of high drama that saw the Obama illusion shatter into a million pieces.

The onus to get a legally binding agreement has now shifted to Mexico City in a year’s time.

Scepticism in action

Charismatic Sudanese lead negotiator and chief negotiator for the G77 group Lumumba Di-Aping, called the deal a sell-out.

“This deal will definitely result in massive devastation in Africa and small island states,” he said. “It has the lowest level of ambition you can imagine. It’s nothing short of climate change Scepticism in action. It locks countries into a cycle of poverty for ever. Obama has eliminated any difference between him and Bush.”

It is understood that some of the African delegates were unhappy that South Africa was involved in the brokering of the accord, as it presented a break from the unified African position.

The South African delegation was not available for comment. President Jacob Zuma was reportedly involved in high-level talks with President Barack Obama among others, in drafting parts of the Copenhagen accord.

Greenpeace was scathing about the turn of events.

‘Not fair’

“Not fair, not ambitious and not legally binding,” Greenpeace International executive director, Kumi Naidoo, said of the accord.

“The job of world leaders is not done. The city of Copenhagen is a climate crime scene tonight, with the guilty men and women fleeing to the airport in shame,” he said.

Naidoo said world leaders produced a poor deal full of loopholes big enough to fly Air Force One through. “We have seen a year of crises, but today it is clear that the biggest one “facing humanity is a leadership crisis.”

In the final document the accord shies away from committing nations to a 1.5C temperature rise, as argued for by small island states and contained in earlier drafts. Instead the accord commits to 2C. The earlier 2050 goal of reducing global CO2 emissions by 80% was also omitted from the final draft.

About $30-billion in funding for poor countries to adapt to climate change will start flowing next year, the accord promised and $100-billion a year after 2020.

Full adoption?

It was unclear whether the 192 countries in the full, final plenary session would adopt the accord.

Oxfam International said the so-called ‘climate deal’ “is a triumph of spin over substance”. It said the deal provides no confidence that catastrophic climate change will be averted or that poor countries will be given the money they need to adapt as temperatures rise.

“This agreement barely papers over the huge differences between countries which have plagued these talks for two years,” said Jeremy Hobbs, executive director of Oxfam International.

Shorbanu Khatun, a climate migrant at the summit with Oxfam said: “I came all the way from a displaced persons camp on the flooded coast of Bangladesh to see justice done for the 45 000 people made homeless by cyclone Aila. How do I tell them their misery has fallen on deaf ears?”

Other observer organisations such politicians was not trying to spin a “nothing agreement” into something that looked acceptable to the world and wrongly convinced them that progress had been made at Copenhagen.

Toothless

Kate Horner of Friends of the Earth, who had earlier the week been thrown out of the conference said the accord was a toothless declaration.

“This is the United Nations and the nations here are not united on this secret backroom declaration. The US has lied to the world when they called it a deal and they lied to over a hundred countries when they said would listen to their needs.

She said the accord “being spun by the US as an historic success, reflects contempt for the multilateral process and we expect more from our Nobel prize winning President.”

Much had been expected of Obama to save the talks from its impasse, but apart from brokering what critics called a “weak deal”, Obama did not bring much to the table at Copenhagen that differed from the US’s previous position.

He also chose not to speak to the world’s press corps, but only briefed White House journalists on his way back to the US, late last night on Air Force One. He blamed the expected bad weather conditions in Washington as an excuse for leaving early.

China blamed

It was reported that he told the US journalists that an “unprecedented progress” had been made, but he also said” “we have much further to go.” Though he didn’t say it outright, veiled remarks indicated that Obama blamed China for the weak outcome.

He said if delegates had waited to reach a full, binding agreement, “we wouldn’t have made any progress.”

“There might be such frustration and cynicism that rather than taking one step forward, we ended up taking two steps back,” he told US reporters.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel said she begrudgingly accepted the accord, calling it a “first step”. But the small island state of Tuvulua complained bitterly that his country’s future was not for sale. President Hugo Chavez from Venezuela also led a trio of Latin American countries that included Cuba and Bolivia who complained that they were excluded from the process and that they believed president Lula da Silva from Brazil didn’t represent their interests.

Yim Gore, Oxfam International’s EU Climate Change Policy Advisor, said European leaders had been squeezed out of the deal struck tonight.

EU credited

“The EU deserves credit for being first to announce their target, but they failed to move to 30% when the situation demanded it,” he said. “With moral courage they could have shown historic leadership in these talks.”

“The biggest challenge, turning the political will into a legally 
binding agreement has moved to Mexico,” WWF said in a statement. “After years of negotiations we now have a declaration of will which does not bind anyone and therefore fails to guarantee a safer future for next generations.”

The organisation said what was good about Copenhagen was the level of national pledges for climate action in most countries.

“Politically, we live in a world that agrees to stay below the danger zone of two degrees but practically what we have on the table adds up to 3C or more.” It said a gap between the rhetoric and reality could cost millions of lives, hundreds of billions of dollars and a wealth of lost opportunities.

“We are disappointed but remain hopeful. The civil society will continue watching every step of further negotiations. Getting a strong outcome of the follow-up process will take a lot of bridge-building between the rich and the poor countries. We expect that the Mexican hosts will be ideally placed to play that role.”

Source: Mail & Guardian Online
Web Address: http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-12-19-new-copenhagen-accord-a-sham

South African Tripartite Alliance Update: SACP Seeks Greater Influence;ANCYL Press Conference

SACP seeks greater influence

MMANALEDI MATABOGE | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA -
Dec 18 2009 10:46

The South African Communist Party will amend its constitution in response to concerns that the senior government positions held by party bosses such as Blade Nzimande and Jeremy Cronin are weakening the party’s management.

And the party now says it is willing to apologise to the ANC for booing ANC Youth League president Julius Malema and national executive committee member Billy Masetlha at the SACP special national congress in Polokwane last week.

The congress decided on constitutional amendments that will create a second deputy general secretary and remove the stipulation that the position of general secretary be fulltime.

There had been concern in the run-up to the congress that the deployment of Nzimande, the party’s general secretary, to the Cabinet as minister of higher education and deputy general secretary Cronin’s appointment as deputy transport minister, was weakening party work at head office.

Solly Mapaila, who has been running the office of the general secretary, is tipped to take the newly created second deputy general secretary position.

The amendment was not adopted specifically to suit Nzimande, Cronin told the Mail & Guardian this week, pointing out that provincial secretaries would also benefit from the change.

If relieving Nzimande and other provincial secretaries turned out to threaten the party’s growth, Cronin said the amendment could be reconsidered. “That is the sort of thing that could come up at the 12th congress,” he said.

“We must make sure that we do not lose the capacity [to run] the party.”

And when the SACP and ANC meet in a bilateral session, likely to take place in January, the communists will be “bold enough to apologise” to the ruling party for heckling Malema and Masetlha at the congress, Cronin said.

Both SACP chairperson Gwede Mantashe, who is also ANC secretary general, and Nzimande had condemned the heckling by congress delegates on the day it happened, Cronin said. “A number of us also said it was a mistake that the ANC delegation was booed,” he told the M&G.

The SACP will compile its own report on the incident, which will form part of discussions at the bilateral meeting. Cronin emphasised that it was not the entire ANC delegation that was booed, but only “two individuals”. Malema and Masetlha are both considered anti-communists — but that “still does not make it right”, Cronin said.

But further friction between the two parties might have been created by the SACP’s resolution to force its deployees in government to account to the party, despite their being in state positions on an ANC ticket.

“It is not good enough to say I am a communist, but I was acting under ANC discipline,” Cronin said. He acknowledged that this might create friction between the party and the ANC because it is the ruling party that deploys cadres in government.

The SACP has encouraged its members to swell the ANC ranks as part of its strategy to have more influence within the alliance.

“It is not about taking over the ANC. It is about taking collective responsibility. We are not an opposition that should stand outside and criticise the ANC,” said Cronin.

At the congress Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi encouraged the communist party to “hoist the red flag” proudly and deploy more of its members in government structures. “We do not struggle so that others can be our rulers,” he told the congress.

“We, more than ever before, are presented with an opportunity to deploy our leaders to the key levers of power. We cannot abstain from this challenge nor can we subcontract it to others.”

Vavi said the fact that the alliance was now recognising the contribution made by communists was a result of “our efforts. We are therefore not an opposition grouping or an NGO that is not interested in state power.”

The SACP’s membership now stands at just over 96 000, almost double that at the time of the party’s last congress. At January’s bilateral meeting the SACP will raise its unhappiness about the poor representation of the ANC at its recent congress. The delegation was supposed to have been led by ANC chairperson Baleka Mbete and deputy secretary general Thandi Modise, but neither attended.

Source: Mail & Guardian Online
Web Address: http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-12-18-sacp-seeks-greater-influence

Mantashe: A hat too many?

MATUMA LETSOALO, MANDY ROSSOUW AND MMANALEDI MATABOGE | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - Dec 18 2009 07:35

The booing of ANC Youth League president Julius Malema by delegates at the South African Communist Party’s special conference in Polokwane last week has intensified a groundswell of opposition to communists within the ANC.

The growing hostility towards the left is manifested by the mounting pressure on Gwede Mantashe, the ANC secretary general, to choose between the two hats he wears — as an ANC leader and as the SACP chairperson.

Mantashe came under attack this week by ANCYL structures in different provinces, with Gauteng calling for him to be disciplined.

But beyond the youth league, the Mail & Guardian spoke to ANC national executive committee members and provincial leaders who said that, since the booing incident, many ANC members are taking an active stance. “Attitudes are hardening from people who ordinarily would not care, and when they take sides, they always choose the ANC,” said one official.

In one publicised case the ANC’s ­Siyanda regional secretary in the Northern Cape, Deshi Ngxanga, announced his decision to withdraw from the SACP in response to the humiliation of Malema.

In solidarity

Ngxanga confirmed his resignation, telling the M&G, he had taken the step in solidarity with Malema.

The battle between Malema and the communist party has been interpreted as a proxy war by those vying for senior positions in the party, to be decided at the next ANC national congress
in 2012.

The dominant view in the ANCYL is that Mantashe should yield the secretary general’s position to Fikile Mbalula, formerly ANCYL president and now deputy minister of police. The ANCYL has accused Mantashe of failing to defend Malema because his two roles are in conflict.

“It is not about principles, it is personalities at play. We are in a new phase of our national democratic revolution. Now power comes with being ministers and with fears that you could lose your position. It is these fears that make people position themselves in this manner,” said a ­senior leader close to Zuma.

However, in interviews conducted by the M&G, it emerged that although senior ANC members are not happy about Mantashe wearing two hats, this does not necessarily translate into support for Mbalula.

Too much work

NEC members said that Mantashe has been compromised by his two roles because they involve too much work: “He is like the CEO of the ANC, which is the heaviest and most difficult job you can get. I’m not sure he can juggle it,” said one NEC member, also a top government official.

Some observers believe the ANC is suffering because of Mantashe’s role. “There are some improvements that can be made in terms of his work,” said the NEC member. “He needs to do his work and not be distracted.”

Said another NEC member: “We cannot sit with you [Mantashe] in a meeting and agree on things that we are discussing, then you later sit in another meeting and attack the same things we agreed on.”

This week ANC deputy president Kgalema Motlanthe said the removal of Mantashe as ANC secretary general was a non-issue, adding that it was out of order for anyone to call for him to step down now. But Motlanthe acknowledged that there were concerns about Mantashe’s conflicting roles. He said the matter had been raised in the ANC.

Motlanthe emphasised that it was important for anyone appointed as an office bearer in both organisations to behave in a manner that would not give rise to suspicions of conflicting loyalties. “The problem is that you can’t take leave from either position,” said Motlanthe.

‘Always secretary general’

After his spat with Mantashe at the SACP congress, Malema told journalists that he was speaking to Mantashe as the ANC secretary general and not the SACP chairperson because “he cannot take leave from himself. He is always the secretary general of the ANC, even when he is at the SACP ­conference.”

In a past interview with the M&G Mantashe argued that there was nothing wrong with representing both parties. “The most important thing is the discipline of being loyal to decisions that you make in structures,” he said. “If there is a view in the ANC and a decision is made, I can’t go out there and have a second bite.”

This week ANC president Jacob Zuma “raised concerns” about the booing of the ANC delegation at the SACP conference. He instructed the delegation to submit a full report to enable the NEC to engage the SACP early next year.

The ANC’s NEC insisted that it was not sufficient for the SACP to say an individual was booed, saying that both Malema and Billy Masetlha, the immediate targets, were part of one ANC delegation.

On Thursday Cosatu stated that it would not be derailed by a minority in the ANC leadership “who are small in number but with powerful friends in the boardrooms of big business”.

‘Rooi gevaar’

“They are using rooi gevaar and anti-Cosatu and anti-communist rhetoric, (as well as) allegations of an imminent communist takeover of the ANC. They thrive on rumour and scandal-mongering, with all manner of claims that communists are gunning for certain positions in 2012. This tendency will stop at nothing, including the use of the race card and tribalism,” Cosatu said in its year-end report.

It also appears that the ANC NEC is itself divided on whether there is a threat of a communist takeover. Malema is known to believe that he enjoys the support of prominent NEC members including Mbalula, Tony Yengeni and his wife, Lumka, and Tokyo Sexwale, the human settlement minister.

The SACP has senior representation in the NEC through its general secretary, Blade Nzimande, and his deputy, Jeremy Cronin.

NEC sources said former president Thabo Mbeki had cautioned the party about leaders who wore two caps, but the warning was dismissed because of a perceived need to stand together against him in support of Zuma.

The notion that the leftist alliance partners are bent on seizing control of the ANC has long caused tensions within the ANC-led alliance. At the SACP’s 10th congress in 1998, Mbeki told delegates that they should not cause divisions in the ruling party in the hope that they could “build themselves by scavenging on the carcass of a savaged ANC”.

This article was part of a two-page spread in the Mail & Guardian’s lead story for December 18 to 22 2009. Read the other stories:

Source: Mail & Guardian Online
Web Address: http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-12-18-mantashe-a-hat-too-many

Are you a nationalist or a communist?

MANDY ROSSOUW AND MMANALEDI MATABOGE: COMMENT | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - Dec 18 2009 08:37

That’s what ANC members will need to decide before the 2012 national conference, the battle lines of which are being drawn with much public kicking and screaming.

Supporting Deputy Police Minister Fikile Mbalula for the post of party secretary general will show you’re a nationalist. A vote for the present incumbent, Gwede Mantashe, will mean you’re a communist.

Or will it? In the debates now raging within the alliance, ideologies don’t really feature. This is a game about playing the man — the ball is practically off the pitch.

Nowhere in the world is the line between communists and nationalists fading faster than it is in the latest skirmish between the ANC and the South African Communist Party (SACP).

Mantashe is the chairperson of the SACP but at the same time the darling of the business world. So to call him simply “red” would be a mistake.

ANC Youth League leader Julius Malema, who serves as Mbalula’s proxy, supposedly fights under the nationalist banner, saying President Jacob Zuma must not “surrender” to communists. But Malema introduced the debate on the mines, which he believes should be nationalised. So has Malema become a communist?

Enter what Malema likes to call “the yellow communist” — cowardly fakes or the 21st-century version of champagne socialists. These communists say they feel the plight of the people, but they do it while living in mansions in upper-class suburbs with, to paraphrase an old struggle song, “garden boys and kitchen girls” all round.

Malema’s favourite “yellow communist” right now is SACP general secretary Blade Nzimande. True, he’s no stranger to the good life and things only got better with the acquisition of a new R1.2-million BMW.

In turn, Nzimande’s favourite “African chauvinist” nationalist is Malema.

As for who is the pot and who is the kettle, both share a taste for the finer things in life, including their 4×4s — Nzimande loved his black Jeep Cherokee before he became higher education minister; Malema adores his grape-coloured Range Rover. Both have chauffeurs. Perhaps they would argue that they need their SUVs when visiting the rural masses who elected them in the hopes of a better life.

ANC stalwarts say the “real ANC” operates within a nationalist framework — nationalism implying a common identity and entrenching ideas about “us” (the people) and “them”. In theory the ANC leans towards the left in its belief in nonracialism and popular sovereignty — meaning the party believes it can derive legitimacy only from its popular support.

Yet, in effect, the nationalists find the leftwingers a nuisance, believing the communists are using the ANC as their ticket to the spoils of liberation.

Maybe SACP deputy general secretary Jeremy Cronin has the answer. He claims Malema displays communist tendencies to feed the greedy black bourgeoisie. Therefore, Malema is using communist principles to gain access to the same spoils for himself and his friends. Which is exactly the same thing the nationalists fear the c­ommunists will do.

Source: Mail & Guardian Online
Web Address: http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-12-18-are-you-a-nationalist-or-communist

Has Juju lost his mojo?

MANDY ROSSOUW: COMMENT | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - Dec 18 2009 08:02

The press conference started like any other where the president of the ANC Youth League is the headline act: the room was packed to the rafters and pregnant with expectation.

So it was a satisfied Julius Malema who strode into the room followed by his in-house kitchen cabinet of Steven Ngobeni, Andile Lungisa, Pule Mabe and Floyd Shivambu — all leaders of the league.

The one notable absence was the league’s secretary general, Vuyelwa Tulelo; apparently she is on leave.

Team Malema was dressed to kill, with Malema sporting the latest fashion accessory — a Breitling watch in red gold and crocodile worth R250 000.

The press conference was the crescendo of Malema’s orchestrated campaign to get himself on the right side of public sympathy after being booed by SACP delegates at the communists’ congress last week.

During the booing, Malema demanded that SACP chairperson Gwede Mantashe give him a chance to address the delegates. But, wearing his SACP hat, Mantashe did what few people in the ANC have ever tried to do: he said no to Julius.

Malema then reported the matter to President Jacob Zuma, who is yet to make a clear pronouncement. And with the ANC refusing to come out in support of Malema, he went on a charm offensive.

Issuing statements every day to keep himself in the news, he even roped in provincial youth leaders to issue statements affirming their support for him.

Upping the attention-grabbing stakes, Malema confided to the assembled and expectant reporters that he had interrupted his annual leave to address this press conference, which was transmitted live on the eNews Channel. But he insisted he was not playing to the crowd.

“Anything you write about me, I don’t care about that,” he said. “I’ve not emerged through press conferences. I’m chosen by the poorest youth of South Africa.”

His audience, which included European diplomats, was ready to be entertained. Journalists were poised to scribble down those choice quotes that would make the headlines and land their stories on the front page.

But despite Malema’s war talk and his denouncing of “yellow communists” he didn’t quite deliver the headline goods everyone was waiting for.

He first declared that the ANC Youth League considers the booing by the communists — who quite a while ago called the league’s president an African chauvinist — “an invitation to war”. But when asked for clarification, Malema diluted this, saying: “If this is a declaration of war they must say so.” And finally he asked the communists to “clarify” whether this was a call to war or not.

War talk or small talk?

Then Malema was asked about rumours that Lungisa, the league’s deputy president, wants to take over as president — a possibly insolent hint that Malema’s power might not be uncontested. But Malema answered with suave eloquence that Lungisa will make a fine successor.

Ngobeni at this point chipped in, revealing that some people are telling him that he is smarter than Malema and could do a better job of running the youth league. His ostensible point was that this illustrates the divide- and-rule tactics some of Malema’s detractors use.

But perhaps the detractors have succeeded. Malema may now be hauled in for his first disciplinary hearing about his comments on the communists — and his backers are openly admitting they are waiting in the wings for him to step aside.

So his comments are diluted and without their usual punchiness. And therefore, most importantly, he fails to make a headline.

Source: Mail & Guardian Online
Web Address: http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-12-18-has-juju-lost-his-mojo

‘I was right about the left’

MATUMA LETSOALO | JOHANNESBURG, SOUTH AFRICA - Dec 18 2009 08:48

The man who caused all the trouble by publicly deploring the growing dominance of the left in the ANC feels vindicated by President Jacob Zuma’s lambasting of communists for interfering in the ANC’s affairs.

Speaking to the Mail & Guardian this week, Billy Masetlha dismissed statements by Cosatu that only a small group within the ANC was opposed to the left’s call for radical policy changes in the party.
“Zuma is not a small group … he spoke out on this [and] made it clear who leads the alliance. We are not fighting for socialism. They [the left] are fighting for socialism,” said Masetlha, who is a member of the ANC’s national executive committee. He felt vindicated that Zuma had clarified the roles of the ANC and the SACP in the alliance, he said.

Zuma took a tough line on the left at the SACP special congress in Polokwane last week, after the delegates booed ANC Youth League president Julius Malema.

In his address to the congress Zuma warned alliance partners not to overstep the line of constructive criticism and become an opposition.
Zuma reminded delegates that, contrary to suggestions by some leaders of the left that the alliance should become the centre of power, the ANC would always play a leading role in the alliance. He also warned the SACP against playing an opposition role to the ANC.

“We need to respect the constitutional autonomy of all alliance partners,” he said in his address. “The ANC will continue to determine in its structures how to advance its objective. The role of the SACP in the alliance is to assist the ANC to succeed in implementing its programme of action.”

Masetlha said the majority of ANC structures were angry about the conduct of some Cosatu and SACP leaders who wanted to take over the ANC. “If I don’t defend the ANC, I would be failing in fulfilling my role as a national executive committee member,” he told the M&G.

“This is our revolution. Some of us have sacrificed. We can’t run away now. We cannot have a few people who think they can change the direction of the ANC.”

But he is “not anti-communist”, he said. “I believe the party has a huge role to play within the alliance. We [the ANC] need to engage with them … I am used to real robust engagement. That’s the reality about our revolution … This revolution is serious. If we start playing these games, we lose it,” said Masetlha.

He said he did not object to communists serving as leaders in the ANC. “I would vote for a member of the SACP who has demonstrated good leadership. I love some of the left policies, but differ with the position and strategies they put forward.

“I will never be anti-communist. I am not a narrow chauvinist.”

Masetlha was booed alongside Malema last week at the SACP conference. But unlike Malema, Masetlha stayed and participated for the duration of the conference.

Source: Mail & Guardian Online
Web Address: http://www.mg.co.za/article/2009-12-18-i-was-right-about-the-left

Prison Population to Have First Drop Since 1972

Prison population to have first drop since 1972

By JEFF CARLTON, Associated Press Writer
Sat Dec 19, 2:27 pm ET

DALLAS – The United States may soon see its prison population drop for the first time in almost four decades, a milestone in a nation that locks up more people than any other.

The inmate population has risen steadily since the early 1970s as states adopted get-tough policies that sent more people to prison and kept them there longer. But tight budgets now have states rethinking these policies and the costs that come with them.

“It’s a reversal of a trend that’s been going on for more than a generation,” said David Greenberg, a sociology professor at New York University. “In some ways, it’s overdue.”

The U.S. prison population dropped steadily during most of the 1960s, and there were a few small dips in 1970 and 1972. But it has risen every year since, according to the Bureau of Justice Statistics.

About 739,000 prisoners were admitted to state and federal facilities last year, about 3,500 more than were released, according to new figures from the bureau. The 0.8 percent growth in the prison population is the smallest annual increase this decade and significantly less than the 6.5 percent average annual growth of the 1990s.

Overall, there were 1.6 million prisoners in state and federal prisons at the end of 2008.

In the past, prison populations have been lower when drafts were enacted, including during World War II and the wars in Korea and Vietnam.

“People who go to war are young men, and young men are the most likely to get arrested or prosecuted,” said James Austin, president of the JFA Institute, a research organization that advises states on prison issues.

The ongoing wars in Iraq and Afghanistan haven’t involved in a draft.

Instead, the economic crisis forced states to reconsider who they put behind bars and how long they kept them there, said Kim English, research director for the Colorado Division of Criminal Justice.

In Texas, parole rates were once among the lowest in the nation, with as few as 15 percent of inmates being granted release as recently as five years ago. Now, the parole rate is more than 30 percent after Texas began identifying low-risk candidates for parole.

In Mississippi, a truth-in-sentencing law required drug offenders to serve 85 percent of their sentences. That’s been reduced to less than 25 percent.

California’s budget problems are expected to result in the release of 37,000 inmates in the next two years. The state also is under a federal court order to shed 40,000 inmates because its prisons are so overcrowded that they are no longer constitutional, Austin said.

States also are looking at ways to keep people from ever entering prison. A nationwide system of drug courts takes first-time felony offenders caught with less than a gram of illegal drugs and sets up a monitoring team to help with case management and therapy.

Studies have touted significant savings with drug courts, saying they cost 10 percent to 30 percent less than it costs to send someone to prison.

“I don’t think they work. I know so,” said Judge John Creuzot, a state district judge in Dallas.

The reforms in many state prisons and courts come even as crime rates continue to drop nationwide.

“It’s economically driven, but the science is there to support it,” Austin said. “They are saving money, but not doing it in a way that jeopardizes public safety.”

One exception to the trend is Florida, which has enacted a law requiring all convicts to serve a high percentage of their sentences. The law is straining the state’s prison resources.

“They know that they are stuck in a time bomb they can’t get out of,” Austin said.