In Haiti, UN feeds thousands more with new food scheme aimed at women

The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) is “cautiously optimistic” about a newly launched scheme that could provide rice to some 2 million Haitians over the next two weeks, and promises to cut down on the recent chaotic scrambles around food trucks as men, women and children pushed to obtain supplies.

U.S. arms sales and deployments to the Gulf - interesting timing

The United States has announced the deployment to the Persian Gulf region of warships and air defense systems capable of engaging short and medium range ballistic missiles. Defense Department officials have publicly acknowledged the presence of eight U.S. Army Patriot air defense batteries in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. At the same time, additional U.S. Navy ships equipped with the Aegis Combat System are augmenting existing naval and air units in the Gulf.

These deployments represent a significant increase in the air defense capabilities of the four host countries, as well as that of American forces in the area. In addition, the United States announced a series of multibillion-dollar arms deals with the Gulf Arab states. The UAE is not only buying the Patriot system, but also the new Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD). Others may follow suit, especially if there is no resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue.

The purchases of these American systems by multiple countries in the Gulf, combined with American deployments of identical or compatible systems, creates a formidable defensive umbrella in the region. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has often referred to this “umbrella” over our Gulf allies as it became obvious that the Obama Administration’s efforts to “engage” have been an abject failure.

A main concern in the region is Iran’s growing inventory of ballistic missiles capable of striking anywhere in the Middle East, including Israel. Iran has had this capability for some time, and Israel has repeatedly warned that it considers a nuclear-armed Iran an “existential” threat to the Jewish state. Iran has also threatened to attack American allies and interests in the region should it be attacked by either Israeli or American military forces.

What is driving the deployment and sales at this time? It would appear that patience with the Iranians has or is running out. The question is, whose patience is running out - Israel, the United States, the United Nations, or the Europeans? Certainly not the Chinese….

If I were an Iranian intelligence officer - I’ve known some, they’re pretty good - I would be concerned about what I was seeing. Part of the intelligence analysis business is a discipline called “indications and warning.” There is a list of “indicators” - a template of events that are part of a larger event or significant change in the situation. Once enough indicators are present, a warning is issued.

Increased U.S. Navy deployments to the Persian Gulf are certainly an indicator for the Iranian intelligence services. Deployments of Aegis-equipped warships is likely an even stronger indicator of a change in the situation. Add to that the deployment of eight U.S. Army Patriot batteries to the Arab countries across the Gulf to augment those countries’ already capable air and missile defenses, and alarm bells might start ringing. Then the announcements of multibillion dollar arms sales of even more and in at least one case better systems - something has changed to warrant this increase in capability.

The intelligence analysts in Tehran have to determine the significance of the deployments and arms sales, as well as their timing. The United States will claim, of course, that the moves are merely defensive in nature, increasing the pressure on Iran while at the same time demonstrating support for the Gulf Arabs.

If you are an Iranian intelligence officer, you cannot ignore the possibility that these moves are the preliminary steps that lead to military action against Iran. The Israelis would not mount an attack on Iran without notifying the United States, despite the cool relationship between President Obama and Prime Minister Benyamin Netanyahu. These moves may be in anticipation of an Iranian reaction to that attack.

Something has changed the calculus in Washington. Do we know of an impending Israeli operation? Have the Israelis determined that Iran is too close to developing a nuclear weapon and plan to act? Have the Gulf Arabs expressed concern that Israel might attack and place them at risk of Iranian retaliation?

I know the questions, but not the answers. If I were an Iranian intelligence officer, I would alrady have issued a warning. Something is up.

UN chief appoints Filipino general to lead peacekeeping in Golan Heights

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today named a Filipino general as the new Force Commander for the United Nations peacekeeping operation in the Golan Heights, tasked with observing the ceasefire between Israel and Syria in the region.

Ugandan rebels kill 100 civilians in north-eastern DR Congo, UN reports

Some 100 people were slaughtered by a notorious Uganda rebel group in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) last month, the United Nations humanitarian arm has said.

African leaders join forces to help achieve UN goal for malaria prevention

Dozens of African leaders met today in Ethiopia to tackle the challenges facing the continent in the effort to meet the United Nations target of ensuring universal access to malaria control measures by the end of this year.

Today on New Scientist: 1 February 2010

Today’s stories on newscientist.com at a glance, including: how your brain gets the joke, a “quantum spread” threat to Hawking’s bet, and when bonobos turn cannibal

World’s largest emitters confirm climate committments

Governments have published targets to curb greenhouse gas emissions as agreed at last month’s UN climate summit in Copenhagen.

Obama keeps his pledge to boost science

Talk of a spending freeze had made researchers jumpy, but the US administration is sticking to its emphasis on innovation

With Haiti’s quake relief efforts going more smoothly, UN looks to longer-term goals

As immediate efforts to provide food and other aid to hundreds of thousands of Haitian quake victims improve, the United Nations is also looking to longer-term goals of procuring 200,000 tents for the upcoming rainy season and encouraging many residents of the overcrowded capital to return to the countryside, a top UN official said today.

Ban praises predecessor U Thant for steering UN through dangerous decade

Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon today paid tribute to one of his predecessors, U Thant, on the 100th anniversary of his birth, calling the third holder of the United Nations top post as a statesman of “great skill and quiet persistence,” who steered the world body safely through a decade of change.