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UN-backed census aims to improve lives of Dominican refugees
A United Nations-backed census has been launched in the Dominican Republic to improve to the lives of hundreds of refugees and asylum-seekers.
Greece, Troika Work on Final Rescue Draft
Riot Police clash with Greek protesters outside the Parliament building on February 7, 2012. The economic crisis in Greece has brought about the imposition of austerity., a photo by Pan-African News Wire File Photos on Flickr.
Greece, Troika Work on Final Rescue Draft
By Maria Petrakis, Natalie Weeks and Marcus Bensasson
Bloomberg
Feb 7, 2012
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos postponed a meeting with heads of the political parties supporting his caretaker government a second time in as many days as the government and international creditors haggled over terms to secure a second aid package.
Papademos will meet with the leaders in Athens tomorrow, instead of tonight as previously scheduled, a spokeswoman for his office said. Instead, he will meet tonight with the so- called troika, comprising the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, to put the final touches to terms required for a 130 billion-euro ($172 billion) rescue package, the spokeswoman said.
The delay is yet another hitch in completing a package thatâs been on the table since July as the government struggles to wind up financing to avert a collapse of the economy, risking a new round of contagion in the euro area. With the country facing a 14.5 billion-euro bond payment on March 20, German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned yesterday that âtime is running outâ to reach an accord.
A Greek official said earlier the government and international creditors were close to a final draft of an agreement on budget and structural measures needed to extend the financial lifeline.
Further Cuts
While the prime minister and party chiefs have agreed to make further cuts this year equal to 1.5 percent of gross domestic product, they have yet to close gaps over measures demanded by creditors for the rescue. Unions, which struck today, have derided the conditions as âblackmail.â
âIt is clear we are going into another drama for Greece with many questions unanswered,â Patrick Legland, head of research at Societe Generale SA, told Bloomberg Television today. âItâs kind of a catch-22 where they have to reduce their deficit but there is no growth. Itâs very tricky.â
At stake is whether Greece wins the bailout, secures a debt write-off with private creditors and remains in the euro region. Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos told reporters late yesterday that âfailure of these talks, failure of the plan, the countryâs bankruptcy, means even greater sacrifice.â
The euro rose 0.9 percent to $1.3254 at 10:16 p.m. Athens time after touching $1.3270, the highest level since Dec. 12. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.3 percent.
Elections Due
With elections due as early as April, Greek political leaders are arguing over demands such ensuring the viability of pension funds and reducing wage- and non-wage costs to boost competitiveness. Greece still needs to agree on 600 million euros of fiscal measures for 2012, a government official told reporters in Athens today.
Efforts to win a second bailout from the troika have hung in the balance over the past five days as negotiations in Athens failed to clinch an agreement on measures demanded by lenders, which may include a cut in the minimum wage, lower pensions and immediate layoffs for as many as 15,000 state employees.
Citigroup Inc. raised the probability that Greece will be forced to leave the euro area in the next 18 months to 50 percent from 25 percent to 30 percent previously.
Merkel said today that the impact of a Greek exit from the euro would be âincalculable,â and restated her determination to keep Greece in the single currency region.
âI donât want Greece to leave the euro and therefore the question doesnât arise,â Merkel said in a speech in Berlin. âI wonât take part in any effort to push Greece out of the euro. It would have incalculable consequences.â
Even so, Merkel said that there is âno way aroundâ Greece carrying out reforms. Greece is in a âvery complicated situationâ, she said.
Museums Shut
Adding to pressure on Papademos and political leaders jostling ahead of the elections, about 10,000 people marched through the capital after the biggest public-sector and private- sector union groups, ADEDY and GSEE, held a 24-hour general strike. The walkout shut down government services, courts, schools, museums and ferry services. Dockworkers and bank employees also walked off the job.
The troika argues that lower wage costs and pension cuts are among reforms necessary to boost competitiveness in the country. Those opposed say the cuts would deepen the countryâs recession, now in its fifth year.
New Democracy
Antonis Samaras, the head of the second-biggest party, New Democracy, has indicated he will oppose measures that will deepen the countryâs downturn. George Karatzaferis, the head of Laos, one of the three supporting Papademos, said he would seek assurances that the measures would lead the country out of the crisis and said the âaggressive humiliationâ of Greece is unacceptable.
Guarantees from Greek political leaders such as Samaras, who leads in opinion polls, are key to securing the funds from the EU and IMF. International lenders want assurances that whoever wins the next election will stick to pledges made now to receive financing.
Samarasâs party has 31 percent support from voters, according to a Public Issue poll released today, compared with 8 percent for the socialist Pasok party, which is the biggest party in the current parliament. The survey of 1,002 Greeks showed a growing number of Greeks wanting elections immediately and waning support both for Papademos and the three parties that back him.
Rescue Blueprint
The rescue blueprint includes a loss of more than 70 percent for bondholders in a voluntary debt exchange that will slice 100 billion euros off 200 billion euros of privately-held Greek debt and loans that will probably exceed the 130 billion euros now on the table.
Papademos met tonight for âconstructiveâ talks with Charles Dallara, managing director of the International Institute of Finance, which has negotiated the terms of the swap and Deutsche Bank AG Chairman Joseph Ackermann, according to an IIF statement.
A formal offer for the debt swap must be made by Feb. 13 to allow all procedures to be completed before the March 20 bond comes due. Parliament may be called to vote on the terms of the writedown on Feb. 12, state-runs Athens News Agency reported, without saying how it got the information.
Creditors are prepared to accept an average coupon of as low as 3.6 percent on new 30-year bonds in the exchange, said a person familiar with the talks, who declined to be identified because a final deal hasnât been struck yet.
To contact the reporters on this story: Maria Petrakis in Athens at mpetrakis@bloomberg.net; Marcus Bensasson in Athens at mbensasson@bloomberg.net; Natalie Weeks in Athens at nweeks2@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: James Hertling at jhertling@bloomberg.net; Stephen Foxwell at sfoxwell@bloomberg.net
Afghanistan - hasn’t the Administration learned anything?
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| Taliban fighter smiling because he now knows how long to wait for victory |
I was tempted to title this article “Obama runs for the exits in Afghanistan,” but thought better of it. Not that it isn’t true - it is - but I too believe that we are wasting valuable resources, including the blood of our troops, in a war that now has nothing to do with our national interests.
However, it is the way which this Administration is going about the withdrawal that bothers me. It appears that there is absolutely no military sense being applied to the issue. It is hard for me to believe that the generals at the Defense Department are not objecting to this dangerous practice of telegraphing every move to the enemy. Yes, I used the word “enemy” despite Vice President Biden’s assertions to the contrary. If a group of fanatical Islamist jihadists are shooting at our troops, they’re the enemy.
Biden’s words: “Look, the Taliban per se is not our enemy. That’s critical. There is not a single statement that the president has ever made in any of our policy assertions that the Taliban is our enemy, because it threatens U.S. interests. If, in fact, the Taliban is able to collapse the existing government, which is cooperating with us in keeping the bad guys from being able to do damage to us, then that becomes a problem for us.”
Mr. Vice President, if the Taliban is not our enemy, why are we expending huge amounts of resources and maintaining almost 100,000 troops in Afghanistan trying to kill as many of this non-enemy as we can? If the Taliban is not the enemy, just what are they? If, as you and the President claim, this jihadist group is not a threat to U.S. interests, why are we even in Afghanistan? There may be, just maybe, some reason to the vice president’s idiotic statements.
Considering his many years as a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, he shows an astounding lack of understanding of the region. If I thought he was capable of formulating the foreign policy concepts involved here - it has to be a coincidence - I’d say Biden was setting the stage for the Obama Administration’s rush for the exit from Afghanistan. There are a number of things happening that pretty much foretell the obvious:
First, there were rumors - later confirmed by the Defense Department and the State Department - that the United States is setting up back-channel talks with representatives of the Taliban at a location outside of Afghanistan. The venue turns out to be Qatar, a country known for walking the line between American ally and seeming co-conspirator with countries and causes at odds with our national interests. When the fact that talks were on the agenda became public knowledge, it came as a surprise to the U.S.-recognized (although to call it democratically elected would be a stretch) government of Afghan President Hamid Karzai. If the Administration is going to strike a deal with the Taliban and exclude the Karzai government from the process, the chances that the current “democracy” in Afghanistan will survive are low.
As we heard about the talks in Qatar, there were rumors - again later confirmed by the Defense Department and the State Department - that the United States was considering the release of five top Taliban officials currently in American custody at Guantanamo as a “confidence-building” gesture to the Taliban. Building confidence in what - the Administration’s naiveté and gullibility? When have the Taliban lived up to any agreement?
Not to worry - spokesmen for the Administration declared that any release of Guantanamo detainees would be in compliance with the recent defense authorization act that requires that the Administration certify that any detainees released would no longer pose a threat to the United States. It is hard to imagine how these five can be declared to not be a threat. The government’s record on recidivism in regard to previously released Guantanamo detainees is abysmal.
Regardless of the logic against it, the government is making preparations to move the five to an undisclosed country in the Gulf region - you can assume it will be Qatar. It’s the first step in their release, blatantly disregarding Congressional mandates, clear threats to national security, and basic common sense. I thought this Administration had already defined new limits of American naiveté, but this goes beyond even that.
Here’s a thought that may not have crossed Mr. Biden’s mind. There is an American soldier who has been held by the Haqqani network of the Taliban for almost three years. Is the fate of U.S. Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl part of the “confidence building” measures between the United States and the Taliban? If not, why not? Surely we are going to demand something from the Taliban other then oft-made and never-kept commitments? If you are going to be foolish enough to enter into talks with the Taliban, shouldn’t you at least get something out before you hand Afghanistan over to the Taliban?
Then we come to Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta’s description of our strategy in Afghanistan, a description that includes a schedule of when we are going to cease combat operations, the number of troops we plan to withdraw and when we remove all of our troops from Afghanistan. This is exactly the same thing committed to by the Bush Administration in Iraq and foolishly executed by the Obama Administration. Is there no adult leadership left at the Pentagon?
Panetta said that American and other international forces in Afghanistan plan to end their combat operations in the country next year, transitioning to a “training, advise and assist” role with Afghan forces until the end of 2014. Curious that both the announcement and timeline coincide with the upcoming presidential election, allowing President Obama to campaign on ending yet another war. If I was him, I would be careful trying to tout his premature withdrawal from Iraq as a success story - every day there is an increase in the violence in the country. Could politics be driving Panetta’s announcement?
The bottom line here is that what the President, Vice President, Secretary of State and Secretary of Defense are doing is to cause the very thing they claim “becomes a problem for us.” Biden’s words again: “If, in fact, the Taliban is able to collapse the existing government, which is cooperating with us in keeping the bad guys from being able to do damage to us, then that becomes a problem for us.” This current course of action will lead to exactly that - the Taliban will take over Afghanistan in 2014 as soon as the last American troops leave.
Have we learned nothing from Iraq?
U.S. Drone Hits IDP Camp Outside Mogadishu
Abayomi Azikiwe, editor of the Pan-African News Wire, is a frequent guest commentator on various media outlets throughout the world. Azikiwe is also a broadcast journalist and hosts the Pan-African Journal blogtalk radio program., a photo by Pan-African News Wire File Photos on Flickr.
U.S. Drone Hits IDP Camp Outside Mogadishu
Famine declared over but millions remain at risk of starvation
By Abayomi Azikiwe
Editor, Pan-African News Wire
Despite the continued denials by the Pentagon and the White House that United States military forces are directly involved in the current war over control of the Horn of Africa state of Somalia, a Washington-directed drone struck an Internationally Displaced Personâs Camp (IDP) just outside of the capital of Mogadishu.
Over the last several months hundreds of Somalis have been killed and injured by U.S. drones amid an escalation of military actions aimed at liquidating the al-Shabaab Islamic resistance movement inside the country. The most recent attack took place on February 3 and drew international attention to the role of the Obama administration in the current situation in East Africa.
In a report by Abdalle Ahmed of Raxanreeb Broadcasting Corporation (RBC) Radio, it stated that âThe unmanned drone went down at Badbado IDP camp which is in the Dharkenley district, south of Mogadishu. According to Badbado resident Ahmed Abdi, âIt was around noon that we saw a white small aircraft flying over our camp and in minutes we saw it fall down here.â (RBC, Feb. 3)
Reports indicated that soldiers from the African Union Mission to Somalia (AMISOM) and Somalian officials entered the camp and removed the crashed drone. Nafisa Ali, a health officer at the Badbado camp, told RBC Radio that âAfter we realized that this was a drone we just called the government and they came over and got it.â
This is the second reported drone crash in Somalia over the last three months. Last year the U.S. administration admitted that it had set up a base for surveillance drones in the neighboring state of Ethiopia.
The deployment of drones by the United States represents an escalation of military aggression in Somalia and in other geo-political regions. Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta recently revealed that there has been a 30 percent increase in the usage of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV), of which predator drones are one of them.
In an article by Linda J. Blimes, the writer acknowledges that the utilization of drones constitutes a new strategy initiated by the U.S. in its so-called âwar on terrorism.â Blimes notes that âIn an age of unconventional warfare and an increasingly cash-strapped military, this approach has obvious appeal.â (Boston Globe, February 5)
This same article says that âDrones are much cheaper than boots on the ground; they avoid putting American troops at direct risk and allow us to target enemies wherever they may be. By using unmanned weapons, the argument goes, we can avoid the kind of protracted, costly wars that have been so disastrous in Iraq and Afghanistan.â
The production and deployment of these deadly weapons have grown exponentially over the last decade. Previously used mainly for surveillance purposes, drones now target and kill âperceivedâ enemies of the U.S. along with innocent civilians who have no involvement with organizations that the White House have deemed âterrorists.â
The Boston Globe explains that âWhen the United States invaded Iraq in 2003 it had only about 60 unmanned aircraft. Today we have more than 7,000 as well as 12,000 ground-based robots.â
These weapons have flown more than 80,000s mission in various regions of the world. The countries targeted so far include Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Somalia.
The legality of the usage of such weapons is never raised within the corporate media in the United States or debated inside Congress. The United Nations Charter, which the U.S. says it abides by, allows for the national defense of a nation-state, but prohibits the use of deadly weapons to settle disputes outside borders.
Since there has been no formal declaration of war against Somalia or Pakistan, the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) which ostensibly launches drones under its command, is not compelled to reveal or acknowledge the deployment of these weapons. The budget of the CIA is classified and therefore no public information is available over the cost or the frequency with which these weapons are utilized.
U.S. Proxy War Kills Hundreds in Somalia
In October 2011, the Kenyan Defense Forces crossed over into neighboring Somalia and began a war against the Al-Shabaab resistance movement which controls large sections of the central and south of the country. Since October, the KDF has said that it has killed hundreds of Somalians and displaced thousands more.
On February 3, RBC Radio reported that âThe spokesman for Kenyaâs military says an estimated 100 Somali militants were killed after helicopter gunships targeted a gathering of more than 20 al-Shabaab fighters in Somalia. Maj. Emmanuel Chirchir said Friday (Feb. 3) that the gunships targeted a meeting where close to 10 al-Shabaab vehicles were gathered near Badhade.â (RBC Radio, Feb. 3)
The Kenyan government in cooperation with the U.S. had planned the intervention in Somalia for nearly two years. Also the White House has pledged ongoing funding for the AMISOM forces which are based in Mogadishu and are carrying out the war against al-Shabaab in the capital and other areas of the central region of the country.
Famine Declared Over Despite Millions Being Still at Risk
On February 3 the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organizationâs Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU) and the Famine Early Warning System (FEWSNET) declared the famine in Somalia over. Yet the latest data indicates that 2.3 million people are still at risk and are in need of life-saving assistance.
In fact if the international assistance does not continue in Somalia, by May the situation involving food security could worsen again. Mark Bowden, who is the UN Humanitarian Coordinator for Somalia said that âThe gains are fragile and will be reversed without continued support.â (RBC Radio, February 3)
Consequently, the imperialist states must refrain from their militarism in the region and allow the unimpeded distribution of food and other relief assistance in the region. The escalation of military involvement in the Horn of Africa is designed to control the geo-political situation and to dominate the exploration and exploitation of oil that has recently been discovered in Somalia.
‘Washington Marching for Syria War’
Supporters of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad. The government has been under attack by the imperialist states., a photo by Pan-African News Wire File Photos on Flickr.
âWashington marching for Syria warâ
Tue Feb 7, 2012 5:10PM GMT
presstv.ir
Since WW II, no combination of nations caused more slaughter, destruction, and human misery globally that America. Moreover, Washington won’t tolerate democracy at home or abroad.”
The US and its allies would continue their plan for a military intervention in Syria even without the UN Security Council approval, a political analyst says.
“Washington and key NATO partners plan intervention with or without Security Council cover,” Stephen Lendman wrote in an article “Heading for War on Syria” on Global Research.
“Doing so violates fundamental international law that prohibits interfering in other countries’ internal affairs, except in self-defense if attacked,” he added.
On Saturday, Russia and China vetoed a UN draft resolution on Syria which called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to resign.
“Plans are longstanding. With or without UN support, they’re coming,” Lendman predicted.
The analyst noted that the Western powers are trying to replicate Libya’s model in Syria, which is the scene of violence since last March.
Lendman believes the recent military interventions are part of Washington’s “New Middle East” project, which is aimed to control North Africa, the Middle East and Central Asia to Russia and China’s borders.
“For over a decade, regime change plans targeted Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, Iran, Somalia, Sudan, Libya, Syria, and other countries outside the region,” he said.
The author also described the US as the number one country across the world for causing human tragedies.
“Since WW II, no combination of nations caused more slaughter, destruction, and human misery globally that America. Moreover, Washington won’t tolerate democracy at home or abroad,” Lendman said.
“Long-suffering Afghans, Iraqis, Libyans, Somalis, Bahrainis, Yemenis, Palestinians, and many others elsewhere understand the horrors when America intervenes. So do Syrians. They abhor Washington led meddling in their internal affairs and want no part of it,” he added.
Space radiation killed Russian Mars mission
Charged particles called cosmic rays zapped the computer inside Russia’s Phobos-Grunt probe, which plunged into the ocean last month
US Strike Group Simulates War With Iran
USS Enterprise, the Pentagon’s oldest aircraft carrier, has been involved in simulated battle plans that appear to be directed against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The White House has been threatening Iran with sanctions and military attacks., a photo by Pan-African News Wire File Photos on Flickr.
US strike group simulates war with Iran
Tue Feb 7, 2012 3:30PM GMT
presstv.ir
The United Statesâ oldest aircraft carrier, USS Enterprise, and its strike group are running naval drills, which seem to indicate potential conflict with Iran, off the US East coast ahead of being deployed to the Persian Gulf.
The drill map, referring to Florida shores as “The Treasure Coast,” depicts nine countries, two of which - Garnet and North Garnet, are identified as ‘fundamentalist Islamic theocracies’ suspected of supporting terror groups, Russia Today reported on Tuesday.
According to the report, the drill map also depicts a 56-km (35-mile) wide strait located some 320 km (200 miles) from the coast. The mock straitâs shape and width is identical to the Strait of Hormuz - the Persian Gulfâs key oil shipping route, part of which is controlled by Iran.
US military officials have denied the maneuvers being connected with escalated tensions around Iran, saying the strike group is “training for all the mission areas.”
However, Rear Admiral Dennis Fitzpatrick, commander of Strike Force Training Atlantic, told The Navy Times that “there obviously is an emphasis on where we think the ship will go.”
The 50-year-old aircraft carrier USS Enterprise, which leads the naval exercise, is to join two other US strike groups in the Persian Gulf by March. This will be the final deployment for the oldest carrier in Washington’s fleet.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has launched ground drills near the Strait of Hormuz, which is used to transmit nearly a third of global oil exports.
Iran has threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if the US and the EU, actually enforce their unilateral sanctions against the countryâs oil and financial sectors to prevent Iran from exporting its crude oil and make Tehran give up its peaceful nuclear program.
On Tuesday, January 3, commander of Iran’s Army Major General Ataollah Salehi warned the US aircraft carrier, USS John C. Stennis, not to return to the Persian Gulf after it left the region.
âWe recommend and warn the aircraft carrier not to return to its previous position in the Persian Gulf, since we are not in the habit of repeating a warning and we warn only once,â the general added.
African soccer and UN team up to score goals for peace and development
The head of the United Nations political office in Central Africa and the President of the African Football Confederation (AFC) met today to discuss how the continent’s passion for soccer could promote the spirit of peace and development in Central Africa.
Taliban lite? Afghans ponder power-sharing
KABUL — With U.S.
The Dangers of Carving Up Somalia
First contingent of Djibouti troops enter Somalia in a US-backed effort to liquidate the al-Shabaab Islamic resistance movement in the Horn of Africa state. The Pentagon and France have a military base in Djibouti at Camp Lemonier., a photo by Pan-African News Wire File Photos on Flickr.
Posted on Monday, 06 February 2012 11:01
The dangers of carving up Somalia
By Parselelo Kantai and Patrick Smith in Nairobi
There is an unprecedented build-up of military force in Somalia. African Union peacekeepers are set to double to more than 17,000 while Kenya and Ethiopia have launched their own invasions. Soldiers from the USA, Britain and France are targeting insurgents with foreign terrorist links. This military influx could prove counter-productive, given the lack of resources for stabilising local politics and strengthening the economy
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Charming and jovial, Tanzanian diplomat Augustine Mahiga worked the room hard as he talked about tangible progress in Somalia to an array of stern faces at the African Union’s (AU) Peace and Security Council on 5 January in Addis Ababa.
“This is the moment when years of investment in Somalia could finally pay off if we stay the course and move forward together,” Mahiga intoned in his role as the UN secretary general’s special representative to Somalia.
It was a hard sell convincing fellow diplomats about progress in Somalia after another year of famine, piracy, fist fights in parliament and battles with jihadist militias.
The irrepressible Mahiga wants to show that he believes that the progress is real by moving his UN office to Mogadishu following an offensive by the AU troops that drove the Islamist Al-Shabaab militia out of the capital last year.
THE AU AND MAHIGA have asked the UN Security Council to approve funding to add 5,700 troops to the current total of 9,500.
That will add to what has become a multi-million-dollar business in pacifying, or at least neutralising, Somalia.
African defence officials and private military consultants are in hot pursuit of funding from the UN and intervening governments for operations and procurement.
Governments in the region earn $1,000 for each peacekeeper per month, and it also builds up their armies’ combat experience.
With anti-pirate flotillas from more than 24 countries patrolling the Gulf of Aden, and French and United States forces monitoring terrorist targets from Djibouti (and occasionally sending special forces into Mogadishu on covert operations), there is an unprecedented build-up of military force in and around Somalia.
There is quieter talk of the mineral and fishing resources off the longest coastline of any African state.
This new militarisation could result in political progress, according to the executive secretary of the Inter-Governmental Authority on Development.
Kenya’s Mahboub Maalim told The Africa Report: “Somalia is closer to being stabilised than at any other time.
It is mostly due to the lifting of the UN Security Council resolution limiting border countries from intervening in Somalia.”
That change by the UN has legitimised the operations by Kenyan and Ethiopian troops over the past few months.
The Kenyan government wants to join the AU mission so its troops can be eligible for funding from the UN.
For Maalim, the next critical stage in Somalia will be political: “There will be some far-reaching changes. Elections must be held by the end of August. A new government will be formed, and one that hopefully comes without the baggage of the current one.”
This is where Somalia’s divided political class is meant to work with African governments and Mahiga’s UN office.
Few Somalis outside the partisan political groupings have much of a voice: civic organisations have taken a terrible hit in the past two decades.
Some UN officials are now trying to reinvigorate the reconciliation strategy launched by veteran Algerian diplomat Mohamed Sahnoun that worked with clan organisations, the foundation of Somali society.
President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed’s Transitional Federal Government (TFG) in Mogadishu is meant to hand over power in August when a new constitution based on the principle of decentralisation comes into force.
The transitional parliament, which has voted itself a three-year extension, will be central to any transition: its members want to push out Sheikh Sharif but cannot agree on a replacement.
For Simon Mulongo, former director of the Eastern Africa Standby Brigade and now a Ugandan MP, there is a clear imperative for regional states to intervene: “Somalia represents a black spot, an ungoverned space, and therefore precipitates concerns of organised crime, bandit economies, etc., which affect the region directly and indirectly … This invites those affected to take charge of the situation … especially when they have Somali elements that also operate in their countries.”
al-SHABAAB ORGANISED a bomb attack in Kampala in July 2010, so Mulongo insists that the Ugandan government has vital security interests there: “Somalia is not just a problem for Somalia alone.
Terror groups operating in the region are creating relationships. The Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) have links with groups also operating in Somalia.
Jamil Mukulu, the ADF leader, trained in the Middle East and has organised some of his elements to be linked with some of the groups.
The ADF is based in the western slopes of the Rwenzori and western Uganda.”
An intelligence source said Britain has growing concern about Somali-linked terrorists
The headline news is that Somalia â whether its rebel groups are deploying terrorist militias across Africa and Europe or sending daring pirates to the Gulf of Aden, through which half the world’s container traffic passes â is a global threat.
Little attention is paid to the harsh living conditions that most Somalis have to endure or to the breakdown of health and education services.
It took another famine last year, which put five million Somali lives at risk, to take the world’s focus away temporarily from the outside obsessions of piracy and terrorism.
That explains some of the scepticism about British Prime Minister David Cameron’s plan for a conference in London on 23 February “to deliver a new international approach to Somalia.”
In November, Cameron listed the reasons for calling the meeting: “Protecting merchant ships passing through the Gulf of Aden, tackling pirates, pressuring the extremists, supporting countries in the region and addressing the causes of conflict and instability in Somalia.”
A European diplomat knowledgeable about the preparations plays down expectations: “We’ll see a call for stronger support for the AU and the UN. There may be some changes in the international management of diplomacy on Somalia. They want to find a way to give Turkey and Qatar bigger roles, but we’re not expecting any policy breakthroughs.”
The tight timetable would preclude wider consultation or much innovative thinking, he argues.
A London-based intelligence source added that Britain has growing concern about Somali-linked terror groups.
After Al Qaeda operative Fazul Abdullah Mohammed was killed in fighting in south-central Somalia in June 2011, files were found on his computer detailing plans for attacks on the 2012 Olympics and other targets in London.
Jermaine Grant, a Briton also known as Ali Mohammed Ibrahim, was arrested in Mombasa in early January and charged with possession of explosives.
Police say he was one of the 200 or so foreign fighters working with Al-Shabaab, of whom about 50 are said to have British passports.
Whatever the agenda for the conference, Cameron’s team has drawn up an impressive guest list including Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, Kenya’s President Mwai Kibaki and Prime Minister Raila Odinga, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni and Somalia’s President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed.
AL-SHABAAB LEADERS Ibrahim Haji Jama Mee’aad and Hassan Dahir Aweys, both under UN sanctions, are not invited even though their organisation will be under discussion.
Some African diplomats will urge talks with what they see as a more tractable faction of Al-Shabaab under Mukhtar Robow, while others argue that AU troops must press home their military advantage before opening talks.
Experts such as BBC journalist Mary Harper warn that “one of the biggest failures of policy towards Somalia has been the fixation with lengthy and expensive internationally sponsored peace conferences.”
In her new book Getting Somalia Wrong, Harper argues that these conferences “have produced a succession of weak transitional governments [which] have paid lip service to federalism but have tended to be highly centralised. They lack popular legitimacy because Somalis tend to see them as foreign creations.”
A better policy course, she says, would be to focus on the more stable regions and administrations such as Puntland and Somaliland.
Belatedly, the US and Britain have backed those strategies, speaking of a “dual track” approach which means recognising the Mogadishu government but building up independent relationships with the self-governing areas.
Working with other semi-autonomous areas such as Galmudug, Ximan and Xeeb may be more problematic, although there are signs that UN and AU officials are moving in that direction.
Attempts by governments such as Ethiopia and Uganda to back self-governing areas are often dismissed by Somalis as attempts to carve up the country.
Uganda’s Mulongo describes a web of competing interests among the states intervening in Somalia: “For Ethiopia, it is about control of the sea.”
Ethiopia has been landlocked since Eritrea’s independence in 1991. According to ÂMulongo, Eritrea’s President Isaias Afewerki believes in stabilising southern Somalia “to stand up to Ethiopia and counter its hegemonic interests.”
The status of Ethiopia’s own Somali-speaking population in the country’s Ogaden region is of obsessive importance to the government in Addis Ababa.
An all-out war was fought between Ethiopia and Somalia over the Ogaden in the late 1970s.
Mulongo says this complicates regional policy: “The Ogaden war still lingers in the minds of Ethiopians. They cannot just sit back and allow the formation of a semi-Âautonomous Jubaland region led by the Kenyans. It will obviously reopen the Ogaden issue.”
Mulongo and others see an escalating contest for influence among regional states in Somalia. Few, even in Nairobi, seem clear about why Kenya invaded Somalia with a more than 2,000-strong expeditionary force in October on the narrow pretext of hot pursuit against attacks by terrorist groups based in Somalia.
It quickly emerged that Kenya’s intervention would not be over in the promised ‘matter of weeks’.
Instead, Kenya’s army is bedding down for a lengthy operation aiming to seize the southern port of Kismayo, which provides Al-Shabaab with revenues and taxes of more than $70m a year, according to UN investigators.
A tough battle looms ahead.
Prime Minister Odinga has tried to calm TFG fears about the motives behind the invasion, saying that Kenya had no territorial interest in Somalia.
Questions persist about the creation of Jubaland last April, a semi-autonomous region in south-central Somalia, akin to Puntland and Somaliland.
Led by former TFG defence minister Professor Mohamed Abdi Gandhi, the new authority is meant to help force back Al-Shabaab and create a buffer zone for Northern Kenya.
Somali nationalists see it as another incursion by Kenya, whose last major dispute with Mogadishu sparked the 1964 Shifta War in Northern Kenya.
Because the TFG is politically weak in the south, Jubaland has never been popular in Mogadishu.
Ethiopia and Djibouti also oppose the creation of Jubaland, arguing that with a fragile government in Mogadishu, it’s a bad time to encourage more balkanisation.
Kenya’s expanding campaign raises questions about its relationship with Uganda, the senior partner in the AU peacekeeping effort.
Ethiopia prefers to stay out of the AU forces but sent its troops into western Somalia in December where they seized Beledweyne and a cluster of other towns from Al-Shabaab.
Addis Ababa remains profoundly sceptical about plans for a buffer zone â known as the Jubaland project â between northern Kenya and southern Somalia.
It would be yet another division of Somalia’s territory and a useful enclave for oppositionists who could easily cross into Ethiopia’s Ogaden region.
THERE IS ALSO an immediate problem of command and control for operations in Somalia.
After four years in the field, Uganda’s commanders may be unwilling to cede command of the AU mission, suggests a Kampala-based security expert: “Who will give orders to the Kenyan troops â [Uganda’s] General Fred Mugisha or the Kenyan command? Will we see a reorganisation into sector commands or will there remain an overall command structure?”
As diplomats and commanders grapple with these organisational complexities, many Somalis worry about the implications of this influx of outside interests.
Some fear that instability and terrorism could increase, arguing that Al-Shabaab will resort to more car bombings and targeted assassinations once it is evicted from its current bases.
Diplomats warn that those intervening should not ignore some of the successes of the regional administrations and that the country is still far from the picture of universal anarchy as commonly portrayed.
Despite the debilitating conflict in Mogadishu and Kismayo, there has also been some impressive economic growth in areas such telecommunications, financial services and livestock farming.
Widespread internet access offers Somalis a vital link to the diaspora and the wider world.
The tremendous success of Somali traders in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Nairobi’s Eastleigh district points to the potential for the country’s economy, if Somalia’s people can find their own political solution as international pressure mounts.
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